Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Standing at the end of Q1 2025, there is no doubt that the most disappointed group in the crypto community is the "E Guardians."
On one hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to its lowest point in nearly five years since May 2020, with a figure of only 0.02193; on the other hand, Ethereum's "soul figure"—Vitalik recently made a bizarre act of "learning to meow" in front of a robotic dog, which has puzzled many and sparked dissatisfaction among some members of the Ethereum community.
In the current "dark moment" of Ethereum, with prices dropping below $1800, the "ETH Hangzhou" event is in full swing, with many developers and Ethereum community members still enthusiastically participating in the construction of the Ethereum ecosystem in various ways. Odaily Planet Daily conducted on-site interviews at "ETH Hangzhou" to hear about the development of the Ethereum ecosystem from the attendees' perspectives.
When "butt decides the head" has failed: 50% hold 10 or fewer ETH, 40% hold 100 or fewer ETH
At the Demo Day of ETH Hangzhou, Odaily Planet Daily reporter Wenser conducted a rough small sample survey of about 10 attendees, including:
Only 1 person has completely sold off their ETH;
50% hold 1-10 ETH;
40% hold 10-100 ETH.
Notably, the person who sold off their ETH, @Solomon_NAHHH, mentioned that they had sold off their ETH a year ago, with some positions now in SUI; while @0xBenniee, who holds a small amount of ETH, believes that the Ethereum ecosystem is extremely abstract; among those holding fewer than 100 ETH, @ConstantinGao revealed that they hold a large number of ETH short positions.
ETH Ecosystem Development Stage: 70% Believe It Has Entered Middle Age
In the small sample survey of 10 people, there was a certain consensus on the question of the Ethereum ecosystem's development stage. **Among them,
**
20% (2 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its youth;
70% (7 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its middle age;
10% (1 person) believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its old age.
Those holding the first view mainly consider the technical route, believing that the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its early stages in terms of technical implementation, with many technical routes still in the exploratory phase; in contrast, those who believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered old age mainly consider the token economy, arguing that based on the timeline of ETH issuance and the operational phase of the token, the Ethereum ecosystem has indeed entered a relatively solidified old age stage.
Those who believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered middle age mainly view it from the perspective of ecosystem development stages, noting that Ethereum is currently in a relatively well-developed infrastructure phase, with all other sub-tracks, aside from DeFi, having been disproven to varying degrees; liquidity and major crypto projects still regard the Ethereum mainnet or EVM environment as the primary ecosystem.
Possibility of ETH Price New High: No Hope in Three Years, See You in the Next Cycle
When asked whether "ETH price can break through the previous historical high of nearly $4800 within 1-2 years and set a new high," almost everyone held a pessimistic attitude, including "E Guardians" who entered the space in 2019 and "ETH ecosystem Builders" engaged in Ethereum DeFi project development.
Overall, opinions on the timing of a new high for ETH's market price can be categorized into the following three types:
First type, possibly in 2-3 years. Crypto KOL and Day1Global founder @RubyWang, along with crypto KOL and KiteAI CMO @0xLaughing, believe that a new high for ETH price mainly relies on new asset issuance methods or new asset types leading the market.
Second type, start looking after 5 years. Day1Global founder @Starzq believes that it is difficult for ETH to set a new high solely based on itself; only through BTC's liquidity overflow or marginal innovations in the Ethereum ecosystem could this be possible. The Zhejiang University Blockchain Association @Freya suggests that perhaps hope can be placed on community development or technological breakthroughs.
Third type, unknown timing, mainly dependent on application development. @ArtistZhou, @33357xyz, @WONG_SSH, @0xPhiloA, and others believe that the new high for ETH's market price depends on when the L2 that is "sucking blood" from ETH is eliminated, the implementation of technology roadmaps like Based Rollup, and the maturation of applications after washing out NFT players, GameFi players, and even DeFi players who previously bought at high prices.
Additionally, @Solomon_NAHHH believes there is a possibility that the U.S. ETH ETF could achieve a complete sell-off and be taken over by Eastern powers, which might have a certain chance of hitting a new high.
@ConstantinGao, who holds a large ETH short position, pointed out that the main reason for the current unfavorable performance of ETH prices is the collapse of narratives like "digital oil" and "world computer." Currently, Ethereum has become a block space leasing business, and after experiencing events like L2 expansion, it has not only been drained but also further reduced in cost, leading to the market no longer recognizing the token's value storage function. In this regard, it is completely different from BTC, which emphasizes the "digital gold" concept; the latter has been accepted by the market after abandoning its payment positioning. Furthermore, he mentioned that although he does not have a positive outlook on ETH's price performance in the short term (2 to 3 years), judging by the past development stages of the internet industry, Ethereum still has significant potential for long-term development. Driven by mature applications, its token consumption demand may experience tremendous growth, similar to the transition from early dial-up internet to short videos and live commerce, at which point ETH prices may gradually reach new highs.
Summary: ETH Is Not Irreplaceable, But It Remains the Main Battlefield of Crypto
Among the many young faces, the author observed that there are still many young individuals actively participating in the ETH ecosystem events. Despite the lackluster ETH price, the ecosystem remains highly decentralized, with both seasoned veterans and newcomers steadfastly committed to the Ethereum ecosystem. As for the price, it can only be judged by time.
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