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Bitcoin seems set to open the last trading day of March with a bearish trend, which could mark the weakest first-quarter performance since 2018.

Cryptocurrency and stock traders are clearly reflecting their concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's new 25% tariff on imported cars, as well as the threat of tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry, in Bitcoin's current downward trend. Trump's frequent mention of April 2 as "Liberation Day" (the date when "reciprocal tariffs" will be imposed on different countries) has also shaken traders' confidence.

At the time of writing, stock index futures have fallen into the red, with Dow futures down 206 points and S&P 500 futures down 0.56%. As expected, Bitcoin's price has declined in sync with the stock market, dropping to $81,656 on March 30, marking a seventh consecutive day of lows.

March 30 U.S. futures market performance. Source: X/Spencer Hakimian

After a turbulent quarter, the stock market looks set to close lower, with the S&P 500 index down 6.3%, and Nasdaq and Dow recording losses of 8.1% and 5.2%, respectively.

Bitcoin's continued decline is a combination of weak demand in the spot market and a noticeable reduction in positions by traders in the Bitcoin futures market. Traders appear hesitant to open new Bitcoin futures positions.

Last week's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data indicated an unexpected rise in inflation, while the Conference Board's March consumer confidence data showed that the monthly confidence index—reflecting respondents' expectations regarding income, business, and employment prospects—fell to its lowest level in 12 years.

Consumer confidence current situation and future expectations data. Source: World Large Enterprises Federation

The likelihood of a recession is also rising, with a recent Goldman Sachs report raising its probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 20% to 35%. In the report, Goldman Sachs analysts stated, "We have raised our previous estimate of 20% to reflect our downward revision of economic growth expectations, the sharp deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating a willingness to tolerate short-term economic weakness in the pursuit of policy."

Goldman Sachs raises the probability of a U.S. economic recession. Source: X / Peter Berezin

Is there a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin's decline?

Despite many crypto analysts publicly revising their bullish expectations down to a forecast of Bitcoin's price retreating to a mid-term low of $70,000, institutional investors continue to buy, and net inflows into spot ETFs remain positive.

On March 30, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor posted his famous orange dot Bitcoin chart on the X platform, stating, "More orange is needed."

Bitcoin buying strategy. Source: X / Michael Saylor

Data from CryptoQuant also shows that throughout March, the number of Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses has continued to grow.

Bitcoin: Funds inflowing to accumulation addresses. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Three reasons Bitcoin price cannot break through the $90,000 resistance level

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.

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