A market where a "consensus" expectation collapses is far more terrifying than one that simply lacks "price" performance.

Written by: Haotian

A few thoughts on the current primary and secondary markets:

1) The debate over bull and bear markets is now meaningless. It is important to understand that bull and bear markets are primarily supported by the consensus of market expectations, aside from the continuous rise and fall of coin prices.

If the market unanimously believes that most projects are "garbage," and listing on exchanges has become the end of the journey, while the "good news" built by project teams is ignored, then it is undoubtedly a "bear market."

A market where a "consensus" expectation collapses is far more terrifying than one that simply lacks "price" performance.

2) The current crypto environment seems easier than ever, yet also more difficult than ever.

From the early ICO market's expectation of decentralized infrastructure's initial construction, to the last cycle's market upgrading and iterating around technical narratives, to the institutional adoption of the main upward trend and the explosion of MEME Coin wealth effects, and finally, the long-awaited spot ETF for crypto has been realized, with support from a crypto-friendly U.S. government, compliance legislation and planning are also on the way. All "external factors" seem to be looking positive.

However, looking back at crypto itself, which projects are truly irreplaceable? Which technological infrastructures have the potential for large-scale application? Which narratives are truly immune to falsification? Which coins can accompany growth in the long term? Or which MEMEs can allow for a good night's sleep? … Surely, when considering these "internal factors," most people feel lost.

Clearly, without internal value support, the market will remain in a "chaotic" state, even with favorable external factors. If we ignore value tracing and irrationally focus on macroeconomic stimulus for investment, this market is bound to be too torturous, right?

3) So, what’s the solution? Calling for a return to technical narratives is clearly not feasible without new innovative applications of old technology projects. Similarly, criticizing the irrationality of the MEME market also stems from avoiding the main contradiction of technology's inability to land. Everything is actually a systemic issue within the industry, caused by long-term opacity, potential manipulation, lack of regulation, and excessive profit-seeking, leading to "game-playing + internal friction."

To break the deadlock, the process will undoubtedly be painful and must be left to time. For example, how to reasonably value a valuable project, how to deprive unworthy projects of their survival soil, and how to allow some new narrative directions to continue evolving and developing, etc.

From another perspective, after the speculative frenzy in a market where "assets are as numerous as hair," and after the market pressure of "shitting" everything, the opportunity for our value investment will truly arrive. Even with numerous garbage projects, there will always be some teams with great visions, innovation + execution capabilities, and a long-term commitment to building, right?

In fact, the crypto industry has experienced excessive FOMO and moments of despair in every cycle, but it seems to have weathered them all, and has always unexpectedly found solutions. Looking back, it has actually been progressing all along.

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