Life is like a cup of tea; only by savoring it can one appreciate its true flavor. Learn to: like lightly, love quietly, think deeply, and let go gently. When you first choose to be strong, you must think clearly: are you ready to bear everything? Because once you choose to be strong, even if it's just pretending, you must persist. Your past strength will make others believe that you can endure even the greatest pain.
Though the process of sifting through thousands of sands is arduous, only after blowing away the wild sands can one find gold. The market has finally moved as we wished, successfully dropping to the target position of 84,000. After several days of high-level fluctuations, it chose to retreat, just as we analyzed yesterday; it couldn't hold and fell. Yesterday was indeed a fulfilling day for us in shorting, with a straight drop like free fall, from above 87,000 to around the low point of 83,700. In terms of operations, I can only sigh that the pressure has eased significantly. For several days, I was in a short position, and the internal pressure was indeed quite large. Many friends contacted me to discuss the market, and I could clearly feel their anxious mood; how could they not worry when the market was slow to drop? I am actually quite gratified that many friends really trust me and have been following my articles and operations. The key is that this wave of waiting has been long, and the process of waiting is incredibly torturous. But in the end, it did not disappoint, and the market has moved out, basically providing a profit space of three to four thousand points. Now is our moment of victory and joy. I also thank everyone for their trust; it is our continuous persistence in the market that has allowed us to finally reach the shores of success. May we continue to walk side by side on this investment journey and write more victorious chapters.
Though dreams are distant, the heart is not afraid; steadfast action leads to far-reaching results!
On the macro front, on March 29, affected by uncertain tariff policies, the U.S. stock market resumed its downward trend, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 3% and the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 2%. As a barometer of the global financial market, the significant decline in U.S. stocks has triggered a spread of panic in the market, reducing investors' risk appetite and causing funds to flow out of high-risk assets. Bitcoin, as a high-risk investment, has also been affected. Additionally, the decline in U.S. stocks has led some investors to sell Bitcoin to recoup losses from stock investments, further exacerbating the downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.
From the market structure, it can be clearly seen that the four-hour chart has once again fallen back to last weekend's fluctuation area. There is a key position to note here, which is the previous low point of 81,000; this can be considered a key support for the medium-term trend. If it breaks below this level, the entire trend structure will continue to decline, marking the end of the rebound from the low point of around 76,600. Currently, the short-term four-hour chart is in a weak position, with the price running below all moving averages, and all moving averages trending downward. The MACD is expanding in a bearish cycle, and due to the current fluctuations, the volume bars have shown some convergence. Today is Saturday, and as usual, the volatility is small. One thing to note is that after the market drop, the oversold rebound has not shown much space. We need to observe whether the market will repair the indicators over the weekend. Looking at the time cycle, Monday is the last day of the month, facing the end-of-month line, there should be some market movement. Based on the current trend and the impact of tariff policies, the view remains unchanged; the probability of a drop first is greater. Just as we emphasized earlier, there will be an upward pull to clear out short liquidity before a reverse second liquidation. Currently, there is still bullish liquidity at the 80,000 level. From a technical perspective, the short-term resistance is around 85,000, with key resistance at 87,000, and short-term support at 83,000. Basically, if it goes down further, it will be 80,000-81,000.
In terms of operations, we will temporarily look for fluctuations today, roughly in the range of 83,000-85,000. The operational space should not be large. Friends who have not taken profits on previous short positions can reduce their positions to see the continuation of the bearish trend. For today, if it reaches the 84,500-85,000 position, we can continue to set up for shorting, with a top-up at 86,000, defending at 86,500, and the target being 81,000. Further continuation will look at below 80,000. According to recent patterns, the market usually starts moving on Sunday night, so we can place buy orders at low positions then.
For Ethereum, the previous shorts have provided good profit-taking space. For the current Ethereum, I personally hope it can show an independent strong trend, but time and again, expectations have led to disappointment. Throughout this round of market movements, Ethereum has seemed to be asleep, which is truly disheartening. The operation can be shorted around 1,930, with a stop loss at 2,000, targeting 1,800-1,750 for short-term participation.
It's the weekend! May you brew a pot of tea this spring weekend, enjoy the new greenery outside the window, and ease the fatigue of the week. May your home be filled with laughter and warmth at every meal, and may the days ahead be surrounded by happiness.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delays in information. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact me for market discussions.】
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