Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Since February, Binance has launched five rounds of Exclusive TGE through Pancake, characterized by short duration and high single-account returns. Additionally, multiple BNB Holder airdrops and Launchpools have been launched, providing Binance users with a large amount of "pig's feet rice."
However, due to the outstanding returns of Exclusive TGE, many users have started an arms race to increase their accounts, with the amount of BNB invested and the oversubscription rate climbing steadily. Therefore, this article aims to review the data from the past several rounds of Exclusive TGE and Launchpool to infer reasonable prices and participation strategies.
Exclusive TGE
Earnings Situation
The past five projects were MyShell, Bubblemaps, Bedrock, Particle Network, and KiloEx, with the least amount of BNB invested in the first round of MyShell, totaling 145,106 BNB, and the most in the latest round of KiloEx, totaling 442,985 BNB, an increase of 205%.
The single-account earnings for each round are shown in the figure below:
Currently, the minimum guaranteed earnings per account are still around 50 USDT, with a return rate of 2.6% on a principal of 3 BNB. Even considering the loss of BNB in the IDO circulation, it is still very worthwhile to participate.
The amount of BNB raised continues to rise. Here, we refer to a key data point—the amount of BNB invested in Binance's main site Launchpool, which has averaged 17.87 million BNB over the past 16 months. It is evident that the amount of BNB is not an issue; the variable lies in the number of real-name accounts. However, since Binance has announced that the number of users has exceeded 200 million, it is impossible to estimate the upper limit of participating accounts.
Therefore, assuming the ultimate investment amount is 10% of Launchpool, with a token circulating market value of 50 million USD, and allocating 20% to Exclusive TGE, the final theoretical earnings per account would be 3 ÷ 1,787,000 × 50,000,000 × 20% = 16.8 USDT.
Is it feasible to short BNB after news releases?
In the second part of the above figure, we have compiled the decline in BNB from the start to the end of the IDO. From past data, BNB has consistently decreased during this interval, and typically, after the announcement of Exclusive TGE news, the price of BNB is often higher than at the start of the TGE. Therefore, the current shorting strategy has a certain, clear profit margin.
Launchpool Earnings Estimate
The data from the past 27 rounds of Launchpool is shown in the figure below, clearly indicating a significant downward trend in Launchpool's return rate. The average annualized return rate for the 27 rounds is 88%. Based on this return rate, the price of GUN would be 0.26 USDT, but considering the poor performance of the previous few rounds, it is advisable to conservatively estimate that the reasonable price would be 0.13 USDT at half the return rate.
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