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Cryptocurrency Market Strategy Report for March 27, 2025
1. Market Dynamics and Policy Interpretation
Significant Adjustment in U.S. Crypto Tax Policy
The U.S. Senate has passed a bill to repeal the Biden administration's late-term crypto tax regulations, which will be submitted for President Trump’s signature. The policy sends a friendly signal, but attention should be paid to the actual impact on capital flows after Trump's signature. On the same day, the Trump family launched the USD1, a dollar-pegged stablecoin, further strengthening market optimism.
Exchange Dynamics and Capital Flows
Kraken plans to pave the way for its IPO through $1 billion in debt financing, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan participating in the initiative, as traditional financial institutions continue to penetrate the crypto market.
Last week, net inflows into digital asset investment products reached $644 million, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $724 million, ending five consecutive weeks of outflows. However, QCP Capital warns that the rebound driven by ETF spot demand may be difficult to sustain.
Macroeconomic Disturbances
The tariff escalation on April 2 may suppress risk assets, combined with expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy (speculation from QT to QE), creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The current Fear and Greed Index stands at 47 (neutral), reflecting investors' wait-and-see sentiment.
2. Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Key Signals on the Daily Chart
Two consecutive days of green doji candles maintain a range of $85,000 to $88,000. If it cannot break through the MA256 daily moving average ($88,500), it may pull back to the $85,000 support.
The MACD shows a slight bullish crossover, and the RSI is neutral (52), lacking clear directional signals. Be cautious of hidden selling pressure from long-term holders reluctant to sell.
4-Hour Cycle Operational Logic
Current prices are constrained by the $88,300 to $88,500 resistance zone (coinciding with the MA256 moving average and the March 26 high). Key support is at $86,500/$85,500, resonating with the MA30 moving average ($85,700) and the upward trend line.
3. Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Bull-Bear Balance
Price fluctuation range is $1,980 to $2,035, with a daily resistance level at $2,060 and support at $2,000. Exchange reserves have dropped to a historical low, but the RSI is approaching the overbought zone (48-hour cycle neutral), requiring volume confirmation for a breakout.
Hourly Key Support Verification
The 1-hour MA256 moving average ($1,980) and the $2,000 round number form a double support. If it breaks down, it may trigger a pullback to $1,950, but the proportion of long-term holders has reached a historical peak, limiting downside potential.
4. Funding Rates and Position Changes
Bitcoin (BTC) Funding Rate: Perpetual Contracts +0.01%. Position Volume: Total positions decreased by 2.01%.
Long-Short Ratio: 1.14 (sharply down from 1.80 the previous day). Ethereum (ETH)
Funding Rate: Neutral to slightly bullish among mainstream platforms (not significantly deviated). Position Volume: Decreased by 16.91% in 24 hours.
Long-Short Ratio: 1.48 (increased number of bulls). The data reflects weak BTC leverage demand, while the ETH contract market is cautiously bullish, diverging from the flow of spot funds.
5. Afternoon Operational Strategy (Updated at 14:00)
Bitcoin (BTC)
Short Position Strategy: Open a short at $88,300, add to the position if it rebounds to $89,000, targeting $87,000/$86,000, with a stop loss at $89,500.
Long Position Strategy: Enter with a small stop loss at $86,500/$85,500, aiming for a rebound of 2,000-3,000 points, confirming a 15-minute RSI oversold (<30) and increased volume.
Ethereum (ETH)
Long Position Strategy: Build a position at $2,015, add at $1,990 on a pullback, targeting $2,060/$2,100, relying on the 1-hour MA256 support ($1,980).
Short Position Strategy: Lightly short at $2,060/$2,100, with a stop loss above $2,120, paying attention to potential MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart.
Conclusion: The current market is in a tug-of-war between favorable policies and technical pressures. It is recommended to adopt a range-bound strategy, strictly set stop losses, and control positions (3-5%). Focus on capital flows and the effectiveness of breaking key resistance levels after the U.S. stock market opens: BTC resistance level: $88,500. ETH resistance level: $2,060.
(Analysis Time: March 27, 2025, 14:00)
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been mainly characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. The focus is on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Proficient styles: mobile lock position strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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