As of 9:30 AM on March 25, 2025, the price of Bitcoin hovers around 87,382.01 USDT, approaching the intraday high of 87,765.43 USDT. However, the current candlestick pattern, technical indicators, and market capital flow all indicate potential adjustment pressure.
Candlestick Pattern Analysis: Short-term Adjustment Signals Emerge
From the daily and hourly candlestick charts, Bitcoin has shown a strong upward trend in recent days, with prices steadily climbing above 87,000 USDT from a lower range. However, the current candlestick pattern shows signs of fatigue, with prices starting to retreat after oscillating at high levels, forming a "head and shoulders" technical pattern. This pattern is typically seen as a bearish reversal signal, especially when the price fails to break through the previous high (87,765.43 USDT) and shows downward pressure.
Specifically, the "head" of the head and shoulders pattern is at 87,765 USDT, while the "left shoulder" and "right shoulder" correspond to the previous secondary high and the current pullback high, respectively. If the price continues to decline and breaks below the "neckline" support level (around 84,110 USDT), it could trigger a larger correction, with lower target prices potentially pointing to the psychological level of 80,000 USDT or even lower. Conversely, if bullish forces regain strength and push the price above 87,765 USDT, it may challenge the round number of 90,000 USDT, continuing the previous upward trend.
From a short-term hourly perspective, the current candlestick shows a bearish candle with an upper shadow, indicating that the market is facing selling pressure at high levels, and buying momentum is weak. This phenomenon further supports the possibility of an adjustment. The next few hours will be crucial; whether the price can hold the support level of 84,110 USDT will directly determine the direction of the short-term trend.
Large Capital Movements and Volume Analysis: Capital Momentum Weakens
Trading volume is an important indicator of market participation and capital flow. From recent trading volume data, when Bitcoin broke through the resistance level of 87,000 USDT, the trading volume significantly increased, reflecting strong capital inflow momentum. However, as the price retreated from the high, the trading volume did not increase correspondingly and instead showed signs of contraction. This indicates that the current pullback lacks sufficient capital support, and the market may be shifting from profit-taking at high levels to a wait-and-see state.
Further analysis of market depth data shows that buy and sell orders are concentrated around 84,000 USDT and 87,000 USDT, respectively. These two price levels will become key support and resistance in the short term. If large capital forms concentrated buying around 84,000 USDT, it may provide a buffer for the price, preventing further declines; conversely, if sell orders continue to accumulate above 87,000 USDT, it may exacerbate selling pressure, leading to accelerated price declines.
It is worth noting that on-chain data (assuming trends when specific data is not provided) shows that the frequency of large transfers has recently decreased, and some institutional funds may be in a wait-and-see or adjusting their positions. This weakening of capital momentum corresponds with the contraction in trading volume, suggesting that the market lacks upward momentum in the short term, and adjustment risks are accumulating.
Technical Indicator Analysis
- MACD Indicator: The current MACD line (fast line) is still above the signal line (slow line), indicating that the bullish trend has not completely reversed. However, the distance between the two lines is narrowing, and the MACD histogram has shifted from positive (red) to negative (green), indicating that bearish forces are gradually strengthening. More importantly, when the price reached a new high, the MACD failed to reach a new high, forming a bearish divergence. This signal typically indicates the possibility of a trend reversal or short-term adjustment.
- RSI Indicator: The current value is 57.02, situated in the middle range of 50-70, neither entering overbought (>70) nor falling into oversold (<30). This indicates that the overall market momentum remains neutral to strong, but the slight decline in RSI shows that bullish strength is weakening.
- OBV Indicator: The current OBV line shows a downward trend, diverging from the price increase. This indicates that although the price is running at high levels, capital has not continued to flow in, but rather shows signs of outflow. This disconnect between capital outflow and price increase further validates the market's weak momentum.
Short-term Forecast and Trading Strategy Suggestions
Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture for technical adjustments. After oscillating at high levels near 87,000 USDT, it may continue to test the support level of 84,110 USDT in the short term. If it breaks below this support, it could further pull back to 80,000 USDT or even lower. Conversely, if the price breaks above the previous high of 87,765 USDT, it may challenge the psychological level of 90,000 USDT.
Short-term Forecast
Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 84,110 USDT, the target points to 80,000 USDT, with an adjustment range of about 8%-10%.
Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above 87,765 USDT, the target points to 90,000 USDT, with an upward potential of about 3%-5%.
Trading Strategy
Bearish Strategy
- Entry Point: Price breaks below 84,000 USDT.
- Target Price: 80,000 USDT.
- Stop Loss: 85,500 USDT (about 2% above the support level).
The bearish signals from technical indicators combined with capital outflow suggest a high probability of adjustment.
Bullish Strategy
- Entry Point: Price breaks above 87,765 USDT and confirms stability.
- Target Price: 90,000 USDT.
- Stop Loss: 86,500 USDT (about 1.5% below the breakout level).
After breaking the previous high, bullish momentum may push the price to challenge the round number.
Risk Management
- Set strict stop losses to avoid significant losses due to market volatility.
- Monitor changes in trading volume and large capital movements to adjust positions in a timely manner.
Conclusion: Beware of Adjustment Risks and Seize Trading Opportunities
Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical juncture, with candlestick patterns, technical indicators, and capital flows all indicating that short-term adjustment pressure is accumulating. Although the long-term upward trend has not been broken, the short-term adjustment risks should not be overlooked. Investors should closely monitor the breakout of the support level at 84,110 USDT and the resistance level at 87,765 USDT, while flexibly adjusting trading strategies based on changes in trading volume and market sentiment. In operations, maintain risk awareness and avoid blindly chasing highs or selling lows to capture opportunities amid volatility.
This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance or views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.
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