The information, opinions, and judgments regarding the market, projects, currencies, etc., mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
This week, BTC opened at $82,562.50 and closed at $86,092.94, rising 4.28% over the week with a volatility of 7.71%. It has increased for two consecutive weeks, while trading volume has decreased for three weeks. The BTC price is operating within a descending channel, approaching the upper edge of the channel.
This week, the Federal Reserve made a dovish statement during its interest rate meeting, indicating that it would intervene if economic issues arise and hinted at two rate cuts this year.
After stabilizing in the U.S. stock market, ETF channel funds surged, leading BTC to stabilize and rebound to the upper edge of the descending channel.
With the U.S. set to release PCE data next week, BTC's price will also face a directional choice.
Macroeconomic and Financial Data
On March 19, the Federal Reserve made a widely anticipated decision during its interest rate meeting to maintain the benchmark interest rate, keeping the key lending rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Additionally, the Federal Reserve hinted at a further 50 basis point rate cut in 2025 and announced an adjustment to the pace of its bond reduction.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that they have lowered their economic growth expectations and emphasized that Trump's tariff policy is the biggest factor driving inflation upward. However, the U.S. stock market, which has been declining for three consecutive weeks, is focusing on the assurance it most desires—if the economic situation worsens, the Federal Reserve will take action.
A clear "market rescue" signal is the decision to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting April 1, adjusting the cap on U.S. Treasury bond reductions from $25 billion per month to $5 billion. The slowdown in balance sheet reduction is seen as a boost to the bond market. The Federal Reserve's relatively "dovish" response to the market decline indicates that while it is working towards its inflation target, it is also closely monitoring employment and equity market stability to prevent a larger crisis.
In the tug-of-war between rate cuts and the chaos of presidential tariffs, although the Federal Reserve remains steadfast, its attitude has undoubtedly begun to soften. Both the guidance for two rate cuts and the lowered cap on bond reductions are understood as support for the declines in stocks and bonds.
Therefore, although the fundamental issues of "chaotic tariff policies" and "economic stagflation" have not changed fundamentally, the market, after experiencing declines, has begun to stabilize and rebound. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.25% for the week. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones achieved weekly increases of 0.17%, 0.51%, and 1.2%, respectively. The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 1.59% and 1.39%, to 3.9670% and 4.2580%, respectively.
Another portion of funds continues to choose safe-haven gold. London gold achieved a three-week consecutive rise, increasing by 1.23% this week, closing at $3,023.31 per ounce.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
In terms of funds, the biggest variable, the BTC Spot ETF, showed a breakthrough signal, welcoming positive inflows after five consecutive weeks of decline, with net inflows recorded on all five trading days of the week, totaling $1.05 billion. This large-scale inflow has become a strong support for the rebound of BTC prices.
In terms of stablecoins, there was an inflow of $958 million for the week. Thus, the total inflow across all channels reached $1.95 billion, providing material support to a market filled with panic.
Cryptocurrency Market Fund Inflow and Outflow Statistics (eMerge Engine)
The BTC Spot ETF channel funds once again demonstrate their stabilizing effect. Future market trends need to be closely monitored in this regard. Of course, the funds in the BTC Spot ETF are fundamentally constrained by the performance of the U.S. stock market, making it extremely difficult to predict BTC prices.
Selling Pressure and Liquidation
With the price rebound, market selling pressure has significantly weakened, decreasing to 114,992 BTC. According to eMerge Engine data, long positions reduced by 3,284 BTC this week, while short positions decreased by 111,709 BTC.
Long positions increased by 73,000 BTC over the week, with exchange inventory decreasing by nearly 7,000 BTC. The selling pressure from short positions is being continuously absorbed, indicating that long-term holders recognize the current price.
Cycle Indicators
According to the eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.375, indicating that the market is in a rising continuation phase.
About EMC Labs
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by cryptocurrency asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and investments in the crypto secondary market, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitiveness. It is committed to participating in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting the benefits of blockchain and cryptocurrency assets for humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
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