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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis (March 24, 2025)
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
Technical Analysis
Daily Trend:
Bitcoin's daily chart has currently broken through the MA30 moving average (85,700 USD). If it can hold this support during the day, it is expected to continue its rebound momentum. The price has oscillated near the MA30 multiple times, indicating that this position is a key boundary between bulls and bears.
According to recent on-chain data, Bitcoin's mining difficulty has been adjusted to 113.76 T (close to historical highs), reflecting intensified competition in computing power, which may provide long-term support for the price.
The upper pressure to watch is the MA256 moving average (89,100 USD). If broken, it may test the psychological level of 90,000 USD, but caution is needed for the risk of a high-level pullback (such as the flash crash triggered by the Fed's interest rate hike in July 2024).
4-Hour Signals:
Short-term cycles have continuously closed in the green, with MACD showing a bullish crossover, and RSI (56) not in the overbought zone, indicating that bulls still have momentum.
It is important to note the current decrease in open interest (the number of unclosed contracts for BTC on major exchanges has decreased by 2.01% in 24 hours), which may suppress short-term volatility due to reduced market leverage.
Trading Strategy:
Long Position: Enter at 86,200 USD, add to the position on a pullback to 85,500 USD, target 88,000-89,000 USD, stop loss at 84,800 USD.
Short Position: If it reaches the 89,000-90,000 USD range, consider a light short position, targeting 87,000-86,000 USD, stop loss at 90,500 USD.
Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis
Technical Analysis
Daily Trend:
The price is approaching the MA30 moving average (2,120 USD), which resonates with the weekly MA60 (2,710 USD) to form a pressure point. A breakout requires accompanying trading volume.
On-chain data shows that Ethereum's exchange reserves have dropped to a historical low, which may indicate a "supply shock," but in the short term, caution is needed for the pullback risk as RSI (68) approaches the overbought zone.
4-Hour Signals:
The MA120 moving average has moved down to 2,000 USD, becoming a dynamic support level, forming a double defense with the middle Bollinger Band (1,980 USD).
MACD shows a bullish crossover, but trading volume has not significantly increased, so caution is needed for false breakouts (such as ETH retreating after being blocked at 2,100 USD in March 2025).
Trading Strategy:
Long Position: Enter at 2,015 USD, add to the position on a pullback to 1,980 USD, target 2,100-2,130 USD, stop loss at 1,950 USD.
Short Position: If it reaches the 2,120-2,150 USD range, consider a light short position, targeting 2,050-2,000 USD, stop loss at 2,170 USD.
Market News Impact
Policy and Regulatory Dynamics:
U.S. Stablecoin Legislation Draft: The House will review the bill on April 2. If passed, it may enhance market preference for compliant assets, benefiting BTC/ETH.
Trump Supports Cryptocurrency: He publicly endorses "Trump Coin" and calls for the U.S. to become a "Bitcoin superpower," boosting market sentiment in the short term, but caution is needed for speculative bubble risks.
Institutional Movements:
- Fidelity Launches Tokenized Fund: Competing with BlackRock's BUIDL, further promoting traditional capital entry, which is a long-term benefit for the ETH ecosystem (e.g., growth in DeFi protocol TVL).
On-Chain Data and Sentiment Indicators:
Fear Index Drops to 30: The market remains in a "fear" state, historically indicating a potential left-side layout opportunity.
Large Holdings Changes: ETH whales hold 272 million USD in long positions on Hyperliquid, accounting for 24.65% of the platform's total positions, indicating bullish sentiment.
Comprehensive Conclusion
Bitcoin: The technical outlook is bullish, but attention should be paid to the 90,000 USD pressure and potential disturbances from Fed policy (such as the expected April interest rate decision).
Ethereum: In the short term, it is boosted by upgrades in the Layer 2 ecosystem (such as Optimism and Arbitrum), but it needs to break through the daily MA30 moving average to confirm a trend reversal.
Risk Warning: The fear sentiment in the crypto market has not completely dissipated. It is recommended to control positions and set strict stop losses, paying attention to the impact of the evening U.S. stock market opening on risk assets.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been mainly characterized by oscillations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. The focus is on spot and contract trading for BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Expertise includes: mobile locking strategies around high and low support and resistance, short-term wave trading, medium to long-term trend trading, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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