The story that began around February 20 is very clear - funds are withdrawing from the United States, or in other words: flowing back to Europe and China.
Performance: Chinese stocks rise, exchange rates rise; European stock prices rise, exchange rates rise; gold rises.
This may be a combination of two factors: one is that investors are not optimistic about the results of U.S. tariff policies, and the other is the plan for the long-term depreciation of the dollar in the Mar-a-Lago agreement.
These completely offset the effects brought by the Treasury's TGA liquidity injection.
The key question is whether the capital outflow will continue?
From today's rise in Chinese stocks and gold, at least for now, it is still ongoing.
Or conversely, what conditions are needed for funds to flow back to the U.S.?
1/ Elimination of uncertainty - this is almost impossible; tariffs are a weapon, and wielding it with vigor is Trump's new hobby.
2/ The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, inject liquidity, or indicate that it will do so. There is an obstacle here, which is inflation… The depreciation of the dollar will affect inflation, tariffs will affect inflation, and driving out illegal immigrants will affect inflation. The only factor currently favorable for eliminating inflation is oil prices…
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