The information, opinions, and judgments regarding the market, projects, currencies, etc., mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
This week, BTC opened at $80,708.21 and closed at $82,562.57, rising 2.31% for the week, with a volatility of 10.86% and a continued decline in trading volume compared to last week. The BTC price is falling within a descending channel, with a slight rebound.
The US released CPI data that was slightly higher than expected, and there have been further developments towards the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, allowing US stocks and BTC to catch a breather.
However, US valuations are still in a downward trend, with historical data indicating further downside potential. The adjustment reasons driving the valuation decline—chaotic tariffs potentially triggering inflation, thereby pushing the US economy into a state of "stagflation"—have not been eliminated. The chaos creator, Trump, is not ready to back down, and the Federal Reserve Chairman is still reducing holdings based on data.
This chaos and deadlock make it difficult to dispel "stagflation" concerns; the longer it drags on, the greater the potential for valuation adjustments. This is why we are bearish on BTC's rebound in the short term.
Macroeconomic and Financial Data
Last week, the US released employment data, showing non-farm payrolls slightly below expectations and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating signs of a slowdown in employment, which intensified expectations of a US economic recession, leading to a significant market decline in panic.
This week, the US released the latest CPI data, with the unadjusted CPI for February rising 2.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.9%, and the previous value rising 3%; the seasonally adjusted CPI for February rose 0.2% month-on-month, with expectations of a 0.3% increase and a previous value of 0.5%. The CPI data being lower than expected alleviated the panic from last week's employment data, allowing the shaken market to temporarily catch a breather.
Following last week's significant sell-off and this week's favorable CPI data, US stocks temporarily improved from deep declines, recovering some losses, but still remained in a downward trend for the week. The Nasdaq is still below the 250-day moving average, with a weekly decline narrowing to 2.43%; the S&P 500 has recovered above the 250-day moving average; the Dow Jones fell 3.07%, slightly recovering to the 250-day moving average.
On the 14th, the University of Michigan released the preliminary consumer confidence index for March, showing a drop to 57.9, far below the market expectation of 63.1, and significantly down from the previous value of 64.7. Meanwhile, the one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.9%, exceeding the expected 4.2% and showing a notable increase from the previous value of 4.3%. This indicates that American consumers' concerns about the economic outlook are intensifying.
The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index reflects the impact of Trump's chaotic and reckless tariff policies on consumer confidence. What pains the market and American business owners is that the US President continues to revel in exercising his power, and it may take worse market feedback and a longer period of uncertainty for any change to occur.
On Friday, US stocks, European stocks, and even Russian stocks saw significant rebounds, mainly benefiting from progress in the "Russia-Ukraine war"—both sides are proposing a 30-day ceasefire agreement.
Trump's conspiracy theory of achieving "economic recession" through government employee layoffs and tariff wars is gaining more traction in the market, at least it appears so in terms of results.
These are difficult-to-confirm speculative motives; a more objective judgment might be that the essence of this round of US stock adjustments is a valuation adjustment triggered by interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio peaked at 37.80 times in December, approaching the recent high of 38.71 times set in November 2021 after the pandemic's massive monetary easing. This high valuation includes expectations of "Trump's deals" and the rapid development of the AI industry. Since 2025, DeepSeek has "burst" the growth myth of AI, and Trump's tariff policies and layoffs have shattered economic growth expectations, making it difficult for the market to sustain such high valuations, leading to a downward correction in search of a new balance.
Currently, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones have maximum declines of 14.59%, 10.36%, and 9.79%, respectively, all near the 250-day moving average, entering the "market correction" range (10%-20% decline), but this does not mean the market has completed its clearing. Currently, the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio is at 34.75 times, down about 8.07% from its peak. According to historical patterns over the past 20 years, if it continues to decline, it could return to 32.89 times, representing a further drop of over 5%. If it returns to the mean of 27.25 times, there is still more than 21% of retracement space. Of course, we assess that the probability of such a deep adjustment occurring is extremely low; it would require the US President and Powell to lose their rationality for the US economy to truly head into recession.
In the midst of chaos, risk aversion sentiment has risen, pushing gold prices to briefly break through the $3,000 per ounce mark. The dollar index has slightly rebounded after hitting a low, with the 2-year US Treasury yield rising by 0.7% and the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 0.37%, indicating that some funds are beginning to withdraw from US Treasuries to buy into the stock market.
In summary, the US stock market has entered a correction space, but the outlook for inflation and interest rate cuts remains unclear, especially as the impacts of Trump's tariffs and layoffs have not yet passed, making it likely that the market will continue to correct downwards to stabilize asset valuations in the chaotic market backdrop. Due to the linkage with BTC Spot ETF, we maintain the judgment that BTC will continue to be constrained by US stock adjustments. Although BTC has rebounded for several consecutive days back to the $83,000 level, there remains a possibility of dropping to $73,000 in the next two months.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
Compared to last week's net inflow of $1.282 billion in the dual-channel, this week the dual-channel supply inflow was $237 million, with a significant reduction in inflow scale, specifically showing an outflow of $842 million from BTC Spot ETF, $184 million from ETH Spot ETF, and an inflow of $1.264 billion into stablecoins.
Cryptocurrency market inflow and outflow statistics (eMerge Engine)
Although the inflow of stablecoins is decreasing and the outflow from the ETF channel is increasing, the existing funds entering exchanges are being converted back into buying power, allowing BTC's price to return to $83,000. Currently, the existing funds in exchanges have slightly rebounded, but this rebound can only be seen as a small amount of funds bottom-fishing and is not sufficient to become a driving force for a market turnaround.
Selling Pressure and Liquidation
According to eMerge Engine data, last week, short sellers continued to sell off to stop losses, with the maximum loss day on March 13, but the scale was lower than on March 10.
In terms of unrealized gains and losses, short sellers are currently bearing an average loss of 9%, which includes a large number of ETF holders. In this round of decline, short sellers have been both a triggering force and the main bearers of losses, and they will continue to be under pressure in the turbulent market ahead, potentially becoming a source of continued selling pressure.
Over the past three weeks of decline, long holders have shifted from reducing holdings to increasing them, adding about 100,000 coins. Another noteworthy group, the whales, have also increased their holdings by nearly 60,000 coins, with costs below $80,000. Over the long term, these two groups have been consistent winners and serve as stabilizers in the market.
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.375, indicating that the market is in a rising continuation phase.
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by cryptocurrency asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and secondary market investment in crypto, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as core competencies, aiming to participate in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting blockchain and cryptocurrency assets for the benefit of humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
