1. Key Market Influencing Factors

Currently, market sentiment is gradually easing, and bearish forces are being somewhat suppressed. Looking ahead, the key factors for a price breakthrough focus on: whether the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates three or more rate cuts this year, whether the rate cut process will quickly commence in May, and whether quantitative tightening (QT) will be paused or even directly halted. Before Thursday (March 20) morning, market sentiment is likely to remain in a wait-and-see state, and prices will frequently fluctuate within a predetermined range. This week's key focus is on Powell's speech attitude, as his remarks are likely to trigger significant price volatility.

2. Bitcoin Market Analysis

Last week, Bitcoin experienced extreme spikes, testing the 76,500 level. After the decline halted, it oscillated back and forth in the 80,000 - 84,000 range. By the end of the week, it successfully broke through short-term resistance, and bulls began to apply upward pressure. The overall trend over the weekend showed a sideways correction. Although there was a spike rebound during the early hours, it could not hold its ground and quickly retraced; currently, the short-term pattern remains one of oscillation and consolidation.

At the same time, the daily K-line continues to be suppressed by the middle track, with resistance again concentrated at the 85,000 level. From the 4-hour chart, the K-line was just touching the upper track last night before being pushed back down, falling below the middle track, indicating a slightly bearish short-term rhythm. Short-term focus should be on the lower track around 80,500; if this position is not broken during the retracement, there is still a chance for a rebound correction; once broken, the 80,000 level is likely to be lost again.

On Monday morning, when Bitcoin retraces to the 81,200 - 80,500 range, investors can attempt to go long with a light position, targeting a rebound to around 83,500, with a stop loss set below the 80,000 level. If the stop loss is unfortunately breached, one should decisively switch to a short position, with the next support level to watch at 78,200.

3. Ethereum Market Analysis

Last week, Ethereum was affected by news, dipping to a low of 1,752, and then began to oscillate slightly within a narrow range of 1,820 - 1,960. During this period, there were multiple attempts to break upward, but none achieved substantial results. The overnight market once again surged to 1,922 before retreating to 1,858.

From a comprehensive judgment of technical analysis and short-term market sentiment, the current market is in a complex oscillation phase. In this phase, operational difficulty is high; on one hand, price fluctuations lack clear directional guidance; on the other hand, both bulls and bears are evenly matched in the short term, making it difficult to form a clear trending market. The short-term rhythm leans towards a rebound followed by continued decline, solidifying the bottom.

Today, it is crucial to focus on the key position of 1,920. If the price can effectively hold above this level on the 1-4 hour chart, the market still has the potential to continue rising, with upper resistance levels to watch in the 1,960 - 2,020 range. Conversely, if the price on the 1-4 hour chart falls below 1,850, a pullback may begin in the short term, with lower support levels to note at 1,820 and 1,750.

If you are feeling lost—unable to understand technicals, unsure how to read the market, not knowing when to enter, unable to set stop losses, confused about taking profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits, missing market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words; repeated failures are not as good as finding the right direction. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends should be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to steadily progressing with you in the market.

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