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Last night was another sleepless night for the bulls. This market, remember back in late February when Bitcoin was around 78,200, I posted that there would be two major, ten-thousand-point level accelerated declines afterwards. After the new low this week, if there’s another wave of accelerated decline, we’ll have to see if we’re officially entering a deep bear market.

For those who still think the bull market isn’t over and fantasize about a massive surge, this current pullback might just be an appetizer. You might have thought it was just a small pullback like from April to August last year, but it could turn out that the weekly MACD breaks below the zero line, leading to a monthly level adjustment and entering a long, grinding period.

So we still need to be patient. There might be a bit of a rebound during the day, but at night, we need to be careful as the U.S. stock market could take a hit. Last night, the U.S. market tested the lows, while Asia looked for a bottom. As I mentioned in yesterday's article, Bitcoin might be forming a short-term bottom around 73,800 USD, which is a 36% pullback from the 110,000 high, perfectly normal in a bull market.

Some friends say this big drop isn’t entirely due to tariffs. Indeed, we can’t blame it all on tariffs, but they certainly ignited recession expectations. However, the main issue is still the Federal Reserve's monetary policy; to put it simply, the Fed is reluctant to cut interest rates decisively.

Many people like to attribute big drops to certain news events, which on the surface seems reasonable, as the market is indeed a result of news stimuli. But in reality, major indicators have long indicated the trend. No matter how strong the short-term rebound is, it won’t be long before it drops again, and new lows will continue to be set.

Before every accelerated decline, the news that pops up is just a script that was written long ago. In short, the news is just acting in conjunction with the technicals. So don’t go against the trend; in the face of this market wave, we are all just grains of sand.

As for the spot and mid-term bottoming mentioned in yesterday's article, it’s just to bet on a small rebound, and the profit is unlikely to exceed the last wave at 78,200. That was a true short-term bottom, followed by a daily golden cross rebound.

This week is a bit special, and there will be major news coming next week. The market's enthusiasm for bottom fishing is not high, and the rebound might only reach the hourly level. The strong resistance area around 81,000-83,000 is about where we can start to exit in batches.

In the short term, Bitcoin's top is probably around 88k. Reflecting on two weeks ago when it was at 78,200, I considered a question: if each rebound high keeps moving down, what will you do if it can’t rebound above 90k next time? Will you still dare to keep bottom fishing and endure floating losses?

Master Looks at the Trend:

Resistance Level Reference:

First Resistance Level: 82,800

Second Resistance Level: 80,600

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 78,300

Second Support Level: 76,400

Today's Suggestions:

If Bitcoin can rise to around 80.6K during the European session, there is still room for a rebound. Currently, it is in a descending wedge formation, and if this formation breaks above the upper channel, it usually reverses upward in the short term.

If there is a decent adjustment around 82.8K, the probability of continuing to rebound in the short term will be greater. For now, let’s set the short-term rebound target at the second resistance of 82.8K, and then observe the strength of the adjustment.

During the U.S. trading session, if 78.3K can stabilize in the short term, holding this low during a pullback would also be an opportunity for ultra-short and mid-term light position bottom fishing. However, if 78.3K cannot hold, it indicates that the low has been broken. Otherwise, we need to operate according to the bearish trend, so 78.3K can be considered a short-term low.

3.11 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 82,800-83,350 range, Target: 80,600-78,300

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