I. Fundamental Analysis
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Strategic Reserve Announcement Triggers Surge: After Trump announced the strategic reserve list for cryptocurrencies, the market reacted extremely enthusiastically. Among them, ADA, as a strategic reserve asset, performed particularly well, with an increase of over 70%. Jiugo also timely reminded students with heavy positions that the opportunity to reduce positions had officially arrived. I wonder if everyone seized this critical moment and made corresponding reduction operations.
Whale Movements: In the midst of market volatility, the actions of whales often provide us with important clues. One whale significantly reduced its holdings on March 3 and March 2 at 11 o'clock, offloading a total of 1,200 bitcoins, with the selling price at $94,000 after the surge.
Looking back at the last crash, after February 28, four whale holders increased their bitcoin holdings, totaling over 3,000 coins. However, the 163rd bitcoin holder reduced their holdings by over 2,160 coins.
This phenomenon is worth pondering; the 163rd holder did not reduce their position before the crash but chose to do so after this surge, while other increasing whales acted only after the crash. Overall, the number of bitcoins added is nearly 5,000, reflecting the differences in market trend judgments among whales at different stages.
Strategic Reserve Plan: Trump's inclusion of cryptocurrencies in the strategic reserve has far-reaching implications. Its main objectives can be interpreted from the following aspects:
- Addressing Economic Risks: Similar to gold reserves, cryptocurrencies are seen as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, especially during economic crises, providing an additional layer of security for economic stability.
- Stabilizing the Market: By holding cryptocurrency reserves, the government can intervene during market fluctuations to stabilize prices, thereby supporting the healthy development of the cryptocurrency industry.
- Geopolitical Competition: In the context of increasingly fierce global financial competition, especially in the face of the digital yuan, this move by the U.S. aims to enhance its leadership position in the global financial arena.
- Promoting Industry Innovation: Including cryptocurrencies in the strategic reserve helps attract global investment and talent, driving innovation and development in the domestic cryptocurrency industry.
Reserve Asset List and Its Impact: Trump has listed XRP, SOL, ADA, Bitcoin, and Ethereum as strategic reserve assets for U.S. cryptocurrencies. This decision marks an increasing recognition of the cryptocurrency industry by the U.S. government. As a result, these cryptocurrencies included in the reserve list performed exceptionally well last night. This is not only a significant boon for the cryptocurrency market but also injects strong momentum into the development of related projects.
II. Technical Analysis Interpretation
Bitcoin: From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price showed strong performance in yesterday's rebound, rising by 11.56% and reaching a critical level at the neckline of $94,000. This position is crucial; although the strategic reserve plan is beneficial for the stability and increase of cryptocurrency prices in the long run, at the current breaking point, $94,000 is undoubtedly an important reduction point.
While there is a possibility for Bitcoin's price to continue rising, it needs to confirm and build momentum through a second retest in the short term to have a better chance of achieving further breakthroughs. Therefore, choosing to reduce positions at this time is a relatively wise strategy.
Ethereum: Ethereum's trend is also under close scrutiny. Yesterday, Ethereum rebounded by 17%, climbing from a low of $2,200 to the neckline of $2,500. Jiugo believes this neckline is also an important reduction point.
When the price retraces to the midpoint, it may be considered for entry. Currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a retracement phase after yesterday's surge, and close attention should be paid to subsequent trends to grasp the timing for reducing positions and entering.
Nasdaq Composite Index: In the previous video, we emphasized its breaking point. Yesterday, the index showed an upward rebound but reached an important neckline. Unless it can successfully reclaim this neckline, the likelihood of the Nasdaq Composite Index continuing to reach new highs is low, and it may continue to decline. Close attention should be paid to changes at this key point to assess market trends.
Gold Index: The gold index broke the neckline a few days ago, and although there was a rebound after the break, the previous broken neckline has become an important resistance point during the upward rebound. In this case, the high point after the break often serves as a reduction point. Although there is a possibility for the market to continue rising, from a prudent investment perspective, even if the reduction operation may be incorrect, corresponding reductions should be made to avoid potential risks.
ADA: ADA surged by 76.41% in yesterday's explosion, soaring from a low of $0.64 to a high of $1.17, nearly doubling and approaching the historical high point of around $1.3. In the continued upward movement, it will face important resistance lines. During the retracement, investors should pay close attention to the effectiveness of support at $1.03. If the price stabilizes near this level, entry may be considered; if it breaks down, ADA may continue to decline.
XRP: XRP surged by 37% yesterday, reaching a previous area of concentrated trading. After gaining support, it has broken through an important level above. Currently, XRP needs to retest downward, with the target reference around $2.73. If it stabilizes at this position, XRP may attack upward again.
SOL: SOL has reached an important neckline. After previously breaking this position, it has rebounded upward after hitting the bottom. Around $174 and $180, SOL is an important reduction point. In the upcoming retracement, investors should refer to the important support level around $150 on the 4-hour chart. However, around $180, it is crucial to grasp the timing for reducing positions.
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