"What Phenomena Are Worth Considering After the Last Bull to Bear Transition?"

This article combines the characteristics of the current bull market and provides some references by referring to historical data.

I. Characteristics of the Current Bull Market

The biggest characteristics of this bear market are several:

1. Old Investors Are More Cautious

More and more old investors only hold BTC, and the consensus around Bitcoin is that each round is larger than the last. Bitcoin is also the only cryptocurrency with a community.

2. New Investors Entering More Harshly

Trump was the most aggressive wave of new users, followed by large-scale recruitment concentrated in Memes. However, as a meme player, I know how brutal this space can be. A month or two ago, I invested a lot of funds in Hong Kong stocks, and I felt that the Hong Kong stock market is like a well-regulated Go game, while the cryptocurrency space, especially memes, is like being thrown into a small dark room where everyone is frantically cutting each other down.

Compared to the past DeFi and NFT, the ratio of opportunities for huge profits to the probability of going to zero is relatively normal—while the memes after pumpfun are very similar to the significance of the last blur for NFTs, destroying all cultural and community significance, leaving only extreme PVP.

If this is the beginning of a bear market, how will these new entrants think in the future? Let's first look at historical data.

II. What Did Those Who Entered at the Peak of the Last Bull Market Do?

Considering that many entered the market this time due to Trump and many entered due to memes after Bitcoin broke $60,000, it is valuable to study "What did those who entered at the peak of the last bull market do?"

Taking the peak of the last bull market in November 2021:

• Median BTC Holding Cost: $58,000
• Median ETH Holding Cost: $4,500

1. Operation Classification

• 72% cut losses after falling below $30,000
  • (That time was MicroStrategy bottom-fishing, market confidence collapsed)
• 18% engaged in on-chain earnings (presumably institutional large holders, diamond hands)
• 10% transformed into active on-chain users

1. Behavioral Characteristics

• The average turnover frequency is 5 times that of bear market entrants

• Leverage usage peaked at 83%

• The density of complaints on social media is 7 times that of other groups

  The timing of cutting losses was very late, but it also aligns with my expectations. The "bad boys" who can run fast in this market are actually a minority (the proportion of bad boys among my group of friends should be relatively high). Most people, especially newcomers, including those coming from stock trading, prefer to "hold and not look." In the cryptocurrency space, once you "stop looking," you might not need to look again later…

This actually reveals why investment guru Graham went bankrupt from bottom-fishing; the more speculative the financial market, the more people who are averse to loss and unwilling to exit!

However, these unwilling participants will collapse and cut losses at the most fearful times in the market. In 2021, it was due to the LUNA crash combined with the FTX collapse, and continuous interest rate hikes led to large amounts of money starting to exit, leaving only those who reacted slowly to cut losses at low points—even MSTR was getting closer to the liquidation line, and its stock price kept falling.

In this bull market, the benefits brought by Trump's presidency may have already been priced in between $60,000 and $100,000, and the negative news currently seems less than before, such as the $1.5 billion theft from Bybit being considered normal—but if the industry faces a few more incidents, it will similarly enter a state of extreme fear.

Why do explosions often occur in bear markets? There is an old saying: "When the tide goes out, you find out who is swimming naked"—during bull markets, project parties and retail investors are close, building every day, but in bear markets, project parties have to painfully hand over their chips to retail investors.

III. What Patterns Do Those Who Cross Bull and Bear Markets Have?

1. Constantly Iterating Cognition

   I should be a typical representative of this. The downside of changing quickly is that retail investors cannot keep up or understand—after all, compared to the buy, hold, and wait for a rise that most people are accustomed to, my strategy is always to respect the market and correct mistakes immediately.

   I can't tell everyone, "The market changes quickly, don't be static"—it wouldn't help even if I did.

   I won't elaborate on this part; let's move forward. I look forward to the next big opportunity in the future.

2. Healthy Capital Management

   This includes always maintaining 30% stablecoins or strong cash flow.

   It also includes those who have good position allocation, such as holding different risk types of assets: cryptocurrency + stock market + real estate + cash, etc. This part is quite complex, so I won't elaborate. The general logic is that in a bull market, no one wants to manage finances, and no one pays attention to preservation of value—but in a bear market, people will believe in them.

3. Psychologically Strong Individuals

   Establishing a "counter-cyclical operation" mindset, the lower the fear index, the more excited people become and the more they want to buy. Of course, this also needs to be combined with more indicators, such as MVRV, etc.

IV. Opportunities in Bear Markets

This is my experience: the pace is slower, opportunities are fewer, but they may be better. I am confident in seizing them—just like before, I have confidence in capturing every big opportunity, and I have done it.

Let's keep moving forward.

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