Author: BitpushNews

Recently, the market has been caught in a tug-of-war, with BTC bulls and bears repeatedly battling between $100,000 and $96,000. Over the past week, there has been a significant pullback, briefly dropping below the support level of $91,000. The volatility indicates that investors' anxiety about short-term trends is intensifying.

Movements of Long-Term Holders and Market Signals

On February 9, well-known analyst Maartunn shared a set of on-chain data: 14,000 bitcoins that have been dormant for 7 to 10 years have moved on-chain.

The reactivation of these long-dormant bitcoins is typically seen as an important signal. These movements may indicate various motivations—long-term holders might be preparing for a potential rise, institutions could be readjusting their positions, or market participants may be concerned about ongoing selling pressure. Regardless, the reactivation of such a large amount of old bitcoins usually foreshadows significant price volatility. Although such movements are not uncommon during market consolidations, they add further uncertainty to the current market sentiment.

Additionally, analyst DOM discovered an unprecedented "Doji" candlestick pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart, which usually indicates market uncertainty, similar to the trend following the FTX collapse in November 2022.

DOM stated: "For the first time in Bitcoin's 15-year history, we have seen three consecutive 'extreme Doji' candlesticks, with each candle's body accounting for less than 0.05% of the entire candle range. This marks extreme indecision in the market, signaling that significant volatility is imminent."

Notably, in November 2022, Bitcoin experienced two consecutive "extreme Doji" candlesticks, after which the price rebounded by 620%. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may be on the verge of another explosive price movement.

Key Price Levels and Technical Analysis

TradingView data shows that Bitcoin's current price hovers around $97,600. Analyst Sebastian believes that to reignite bullish momentum, Bitcoin first needs to stabilize above the key level of $98,000, which would lay the groundwork for breaking through the psychological barrier of $100,000. Once Bitcoin successfully breaks and holds above the $100,000 mark, it will confirm a strong return of bullish momentum and is expected to further explore higher supply ranges, initiating a new upward trend.

However, the current demand range of $96,000 to $97,000 must be maintained to provide support for potential upward movement. If this range is lost, it could trigger more selling pressure. In such a scenario, Bitcoin may drop below $95,000 and further test the demand range around $90,000. Such a trend would severely impact market sentiment and further reinforce bearish expectations.

Recently, Bitcoin has also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which typically indicates that a significant price breakout is forthcoming.

Market analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out that Bitcoin's price is expected to break through the upper trend line of the triangle and ultimately reach a target of $116,000. According to technical analysis rules, the calculation for the upward target is to add the maximum distance between the triangle's upper and lower trend lines to the potential breakout point, providing a theoretical basis for Bitcoin's upward target.

Market Outlook

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl predicts that, supported by favorable Trump policies, Bitcoin may reach an all-time high in the first quarter of 2025. Nevertheless, in the short term, $80,000 remains a popular target for many analysts. Investment research firm Bravo Research noted that if the price falls back to this level, it would provide traders with a "buy the dip" opportunity.

In summary, Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical juncture, and the balance of power between bulls and bears will determine the market direction in the short term. Investors need to closely monitor the performance of the two key levels of $98,000 and $96,000; a breakout by either side could trigger significant market volatility.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。