1. U.S. Adds 143,000 Jobs in January, Below Expectations

U.S. job growth in January fell short of expectations, but the unemployment rate was lower than anticipated, raising the possibility of the Federal Reserve further easing monetary policy. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the economy added 143,000 jobs in January, below the forecast of 170,000 and down from 256,000 in December. The unemployment rate dropped to 4%, while the expectation was 4.1%, the same as in December. Under pressure in recent days, Bitcoin (BTC) initially rose to $97,500, while the DXY index increased to 107.8. The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 100 basis points in the last four months of 2024, with investors expecting more similar cuts in 2025. However, a series of strong economic and inflation data led the Fed to quickly retract its dovish stance, and traders ruled out the possibility of further easing. Before the employment data was released this morning, the CME FedWatch showed that the probability of a rate cut in March was only 15%. -Original

2. Probability of Fed Rate Cut in March at 14.5%

According to CME FedWatch data, ahead of the U.S. non-farm payroll data release at 21:30 tonight, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in March is 14.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 85.5%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by May is 3.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 32.8%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 63.4%. -Original

3. Trump May Impose Tariffs on Other Countries

4. Florida Proposal Allows Investment in Bitcoin

Florida Republican Senator Joe Gruters proposed a bill on Friday that would allow the state to invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Gruters' bill outlines that the Florida Chief Financial Officer's investment in Bitcoin cannot exceed 10% of the total funds in any account. -Original

5. U.S. House Introduces New Draft to Regulate Stablecoins

French Hill, the Republican chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee and a Republican from Arkansas, has released a legislative draft to regulate stablecoins, as U.S. lawmakers push forward with rules for these assets. Hill, along with Wisconsin Republican Congressman Bryan Steil, released a discussion draft on stablecoins on Thursday, based on the committee's work over the years. Steil leads the committee's focus on digital assets. Hill and Steil are seeking feedback on the draft, which will be discussed at next week's House Financial Services Committee hearing. Lawmakers have been working for years to pass a stablecoin bill, primarily focusing on the House. A contentious point in the bill is the provision allowing state regulators to approve stablecoin issuances without Federal Reserve involvement. The discussion draft differs slightly from previous stablecoin bills. For example, it grants the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) the authority to "approve and supervise federally qualified non-bank payment stablecoin issuers," rather than providing a federal path for "payment stablecoin issuers" through the Federal Reserve. Earlier this week, Tennessee Republican Senator Bill Hagerty introduced a stablecoin regulatory bill titled the "Guiding and Establishing American Stablecoin National Innovation Act." The discussion draft is not a companion bill to Hagerty's bill, but Hill and Steil indicated that both bills reflect the Republican effort on key issues. -Original

6. ConsenSys Faces Banking Crackdown

Joseph Lubin, CEO of Ethereum software company ConsenSys, stated that the company has been targeted twice by U.S. authorities attempting to cut off access to the financial system, making it a victim of "Operation Chokepoint 2.0." In the latest incident, a major U.S. bank (reportedly Wells Fargo) ultimately closed ConsenSys' accounts after pressure from regulators. Lubin revealed that the bank initially attempted to delay the execution and expressed support for ConsenSys but ultimately could not withstand the pressure. Additionally, Lubin himself was targeted in this crackdown. -Original

7. Bitcoin Market Activity Hits One-Year Low

CryptoQuant analyzed this week that despite blockchain activity dropping to its lowest level in a year, a Bitcoin (BTC) holder indicator suggests that prices will rise in the coming months. The company's Bitcoin network activity index has fallen 15% since its historical peak in November 2024, reaching 3,760 as of Friday morning, the lowest level since February 2024. This index is a cumulative measure of Bitcoin metrics such as active addresses, transaction volume, block size, and fees, indicating the growth or decline of Bitcoin usage. The decline in activity is marked by a sharp drop in transaction volume. As of Friday, the total daily transactions were 346,000, down 53% from a peak of 734,000. The Bitcoin mempool, or the collection of all unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions (waiting for miners to include them in blocks), also showed lower network activity. As of Thursday, mempool transaction volume plummeted from a December peak of 287,000 to just 3,000, a nearly 99% drop, reaching the lowest level since March 2022. CryptoQuant indicated that the reduced usage of the Runes protocol may be a reason for the crash, as the Runes protocol is a relatively new way to issue fungible tokens directly on Bitcoin. It stated, "The decline in Bitcoin network activity can primarily be attributed to the collapse of token minting using the RUNES protocol on the Bitcoin network." This is evident in the daily total of OP RETURN codes in Bitcoin transactions, which the RUNES protocol uses to write data about token minting and transfers on the network. When the RUNES protocol emerged in April 2024, the daily number of OP RETURN codes surged to 802K. However, since then, the number of OP RETURN codes has sharply declined, with only 10K OP RETURN codes being used," the company added. However, the decline in activity may not directly impact Bitcoin prices, as demand for long-term accumulation addresses has increased in recent weeks, suggesting that Bitcoin prices may rise. The demand for permanent holders of Bitcoin is accelerating. Historically, this indicates strong confidence and often foreshadows a rebound. pic.twitter.com/o2xPydbUhi On February 7, 2025, this surge has historically been associated with rebounds in BTC prices, indicating that people generally view the asset as an investment or a store of value. Permanent holders are addresses that accumulate BTC over time and never participate in spending transactions, indicating that long-term holding strategies lead to insufficient selling pressure. -Original

8. CFTC to Host Crypto CEO Forum

According to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is planning to host a CEO forum to discuss the CFTC's digital asset market pilot program for tokenized non-cash collateral, such as stablecoins. Participants include leaders from Circle, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Ripple, with the concept of expanding non-cash collateral through distributed ledger technology proposed by current CFTC acting chair Caroline Pham. -Original

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