Today is the eighth day of the New Year, and we are starting work with good fortune. Given the recent sharp decline in the market, with Ethereum and altcoins crashing, some friends are worried about whether the bull market is still on. I will state the conclusion directly here: the structure of the bull market has not been broken for now; the key support is around 90,000. Moreover, this bull market is different from previous ones; the four-year cycle may not apply. As I mentioned yesterday, the adjustment period has been extended. If we cannot break through 110,000 in a short time, we cannot rule out a drop to the 7-8 range, unless we fall back below 7.4 and cannot recover, which would confirm the end of the bull market.

The day before yesterday, after a spike, there was a quick rebound of over 10,000 points, indicating that there is still some capital strength. In the short term, we will look for a second test and observe the height of the rebound. If it cannot reach a new high, we may see high-level fluctuations or even a decline. Originally, we expected a decent altcoin season rebound in February, but Ethereum's failed breakout and subsequent flash crash indicate that the panic from the drop will take time to recover. Historically, the first half of the year has greater risks than the second half, with significant pullbacks occurring even during rising trends, such as on March 12, May 19, and early 2023. In 2024, we may see high-level fluctuations and declines starting in early March.

Whether in the U.S. stock market or the crypto space, I hope for a "gray rhino" (an obvious and highly probable threat that is ignored, which ultimately leads to significant consequences and impacts, like the financial crisis in 2008 that had early warnings from experts, but no one wanted to face the gray rhino) to better hold positions.

Bitcoin

After the spike rebound to 102,456, it has been in a correction. This morning, it dropped to a low of 96,100, and as of the time of writing, it has rebounded to 98,500. The one-hour descending channel has broken through, and there is a bullish divergence indicating the strength of the rebound. In the four-hour timeframe, we will look for opportunities for a second test of the spike.

The daily chart shows two bearish candles sandwiched around a bullish one, supported by the spike. The daily chart is also in a descending channel, and caution is needed if the rebound cannot break through this channel.

Support: Pressure:

Ethereum

After the spike to 2,125, the subsequent correction is getting closer to the bottom of the spike, providing opportunities for a second test. On the weekly chart, we previously stated that it should not fall below 2,800. The sharp drop the day before yesterday broke this level, and we will see if the second test can close above 2,800. If it cannot recover soon, the outlook for Ethereum is not optimistic.

From the false breakout to the spike rebound, it has not broken through 0.618, so we will focus on opportunities for a second test.

Support: Pressure:

If you like my views, please like, comment, and share. Let's navigate through the bull and bear markets together!!!

This article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it will be updated in real-time.

Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Public account: Trader Gongzi Fusu

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