If he really only aims to "harvest leeks" … then that would be good.

Author: Xiaoxi Cicero, Dante by the River of Forgetfulness

Hello everyone, yesterday we summarized Biden (written on the last day of the "Biden Era"), today I want to talk about the soon-to-be-inaugurated Trump. From his choice to publicly launch a meme coin named after himself on the eve of his inauguration, as reported, this coin skyrocketed over 20,000% in a short time, with a current total market value exceeding $20 billion.

To be honest, it took me a whole day to convince myself that this was not some fake news that Trump often talks about, because I find this situation utterly ridiculous. A president-elect of the United States chooses to launch his own meme coin on the eve of taking office? The impact of this is no less than that of a virtuous and devout nun announcing her decision to enter the adult film industry just before being canonized by the Roman Catholic Church. I even doubted whether Trump was planning to step down.

However, after careful consideration, I feel that he might indeed have his own plans—but if this plan succeeds, it is very likely to push the future of the United States and even all of humanity into an unknown, high-risk abyss.

Please allow me to use a lengthy article to explain the logic behind Trump's actions and the costs and risks involved.

Before I officially start writing, I want to apologize and clarify to two groups of readers that I will inevitably offend in this article.

The first group of readers is the hardcore Trump supporters in China.

If you are one of my long-time readers, you should know that I have been relatively friendly and moderate towards Trump in the simplified Chinese media circle. Many of my initial readers were sympathizers or even staunch supporters of Trump. However, I believe that while it is okay to sympathize with and support Trump, it should never turn into a cult of personality. If you support Trump to the extent that "whatever Trump supports, we will firmly back; whatever Trump opposes, we will firmly criticize," then what is the essential difference between your support for Trump and the extreme cult of personality that you despise? It is not only a deviation from the valuable conservative ideology of supporting Trump but also a betrayal of the modern democratic and legal principles of society.

We believe in and follow ideas and systems, and it should never be about individuals. This truth is even more important than any ideological struggle. Those who do not acknowledge it lack modernity. In the world of "Water Margin," the character Song Jiang, who kills when told to and harms children when ordered, is more fitting for such an image.

The second group of readers is probably the so-called "big shots in the crypto world."

In this article, I will tend to deny that meme coins (note, only meme coins, not all cryptocurrencies) have any positive value.

But even if I say this cautiously, I still expect that some crypto enthusiasts will come to criticize me—how dare you say that? You clearly don't understand economics!

There's nothing I can do; I've already boarded the ship, and interests are involved. I generally do not deny the value of meme coins, just as I do not advise friends who return from a trip to a certain southwestern region, having bought "silver combs" or "chicken blood jade" at high prices, to just tell them: this junk isn't worth much.

However, I still find this inevitable criticism quite surreal—when did it start? Recognizing meme coins, altcoins, and air coins became a symbol of understanding economics?

I believe this criticism is a typical logical fallacy. Not participating or not affirming means not understanding? Following this logic, someone who criticizes drug use could be labeled as not understanding enjoyment, and someone who criticizes prostitution could be questioned as being a eunuch. If the followers of the People's Temple or Aum Shinrikyo were to come back, they could also be criticized for their indiscriminate killings and suicides as "not knowing what a true god is."

I may have said this too harshly, but I want to emphasize that any effective discussion is not achieved through labeling. In this article, I will list the reasons why my overall evaluation of meme coins tends to be negative. If anyone can reasonably and factually refute these reasons, feel free to leave a comment.

But I do not accept any labeling that starts with "you don't understand."

The two easiest labels to attach in this world are: "you don't understand" and "you have ulterior motives"—in other words, the so-called "either foolish or malicious."

I always suspect that those who like to say such things are actually the ones who are either foolish or malicious.

Alright, the armor is on. If you accept my two points of understanding above, then I will take you on a journey of thought.

1. Meme coins are not coins

Here, I must first educate friends who know nothing about this field. Although the meme coin launched by Trump this time belongs to the category of digital cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, the logic behind their issuance is fundamentally different.

To use a vivid analogy, Bitcoin is more like gold in the real world. Its total issuance is bound by its mathematical model and natural mathematical laws, meaning that even Satoshi Nakamoto, who first proposed and issued Bitcoin, cannot decide how many Bitcoins to issue. The generation of Bitcoin is determined by countless "mining machines" around the world through computational power.

Meme coins, on the other hand, are different. Strictly speaking, meme coins are not even worthy of being called a coin; they are merely digital private stamps or digital commemorative medals. The total number of meme coins issued initially depends entirely on the "coin owner," who is the only "mine" and creator of the meme coin.

In fact, meme coins started as a near-silly joke among internet geeks. For example, Dogecoin, issued in 2013 by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, features the famous Shiba Inu meme as its mascot, and the issuers almost explicitly tell you that they are just joking, and those who are willing to buy this coin are essentially giving money to their creativity.

However, later on, in the internet frenzy of "anything can be speculated," a few meme coins unexpectedly retained their trading value.

To this day, the issuance and circulation of meme coins still closely resemble online gambling—issuers and traders need to first exchange a certain amount of Solana (a type of voucher) for dollars on a website, register their meme coin wallet, and then they can start trading or issuing coins. The website does not effectively verify the qualifications of the issuers.

So theoretically, anyone (even without being a person, you could even bring a Shiba Inu) can issue a "coin" on such a platform. The value of a meme coin after issuance entirely depends on how much people are willing to pay for it— in other words, the value of a meme coin completely depends on how much "value consensus" it can establish among its fan base, which in turn depends on who its promoters are. It is a purely opportunistic means of monetizing the fame of celebrities.

Doesn't it sound like meme coins are not a form of currency but more like signed photos, private stamps, or commemorative medals given by idols to fans in the past? Yes, stripping away the superficial flashy technical packaging, the essence of meme coins is just that. It is different from Bitcoin and has nothing to do with underlying technology or decentralization—in fact, the issuance mechanism of meme coins is exactly the opposite, being even more centralized than traditional currencies, centered around their issuers.

This is crucial, and it will be used later.

Because of this, on the Solana chain platform where Trump announced the issuance of coins, millions of meme coins are announced every year, and the chances of a coin maintaining trading value (meaning that there are still buyers willing to purchase the meme coin you hold) after the first month of issuance are extremely slim. 99.9999% of meme coins are essentially a game of passing the parcel and online gambling.

In summary, compared to real currency, meme coins do not possess any qualifications to become a true currency.

First, they are issued without reserves. Although a few meme coin issuers have promised to redeem their coins at a one-to-one ratio if their meme coins fall below a certain issuance price, to date, no fool has actually done this; all issuers ultimately choose to cash out and run away.

Second, there is no central bank to effectively control and supervise them.

Whether meme coins will encounter "insider trading" issues depends purely on the issuer's personal feelings and conscience, and in the face of enormous profit temptation, no issuer of any meme coin has managed to last more than three years without completely cashing out. It has been proven that human consensus and conscience have not progressed to the point where the central bank's regulatory system can also be "decentralized." Relying solely on a "gentleman's agreement" between an internet celebrity and their fans to maintain a currency's value is unrealistic. Do not underestimate human nature.

Finally, and most importantly, they do not possess the natural scarcity that traditional currencies or even Bitcoin have.

The issuance quantity of traditional currencies must be anchored to their reserves; excessive issuance leads to hyperinflation. The issuance quantity of Bitcoin is even more anchored to mathematics; unless God decides that 1+1 no longer equals 2, no one can cause Bitcoin to be overissued.

But where is the guarantee of scarcity for meme coins? There is none; it all depends on the issuer's mood.

For example, Trump announced that his Trump coin would initially issue 200 million coins, with an additional 800 million to be issued later, totaling one billion coins. This quantity purely depends on his own mood and character.

This is why most meme coin issuers choose to cash out and run at certain points—human nature cannot withstand the test of unbounded constraints.

Moreover, I think the words Trump used when issuing the coin also serve as a clear signal. Pay attention to his tweet; he said he issued this coin to "celebrate" our victory.

What is typically issued during a celebration? Signed photos, commemorative medals, right?

When have you ever heard of a country overissuing a certain amount of fiat currency to celebrate something?

Even if it did happen, that country would be on the brink of collapse.

So meme coins are fundamentally not currency; their other names, altcoins and counterfeit coins, actually reveal their essence.

But with this analysis, a question arises—why does Trump, who should understand the nature of meme coins, still insist on issuing them?

The wealthy Trump surely wouldn't be like those low-end internet celebrities, just looking to "harvest another wave of leeks" and scam some money, right? If that were the case, he should wait four years to do it.

Of course, he is not. He has grand ambitions—

So grand that years later, when Americans look back on this, they might hope: "Oh, Trump, you really only wanted to harvest leeks and scam some money… that would be good!"

2. Does Trump only want to "harvest leeks"?

Here, I want to clarify a rumor about Trump. After this incident, many people in the simplified Chinese internet circle have been spreading the claim that "Trump issued coins and made a fortune (even 'cashed out' xxx billion dollars)." This statement is inaccurate and even disregards the facts in order to attack Trump.

Whether it's $24 billion or the latest figure in the hundreds of billions, these amounts refer to the current total market value of the "Trump Coin" issued. Using common sense from the stock market, we know that total market value cannot be directly equated to how much one can "cash out" or "profit." Having a million at home doesn't count if it's in the form of debt. If Trump really intends to emulate some short-sighted internet celebrities by cashing out all his "Trump Coins," it would be akin to "crashing the stock," causing the value of Trump Coin to plummet rapidly. His profit margin would shrink significantly along with his personal credibility, and while the amount of money cashed out would still be substantial, it would be far less than the current market value of Trump Coin.

Moreover, to be honest, Trump has his own businesses; he is not some broke internet celebrity eager to monetize his fame. To attribute his reason for issuing coins to making a retirement fund for himself is quite laughable—as of 2024, Trump's total assets amount to $3.2725 billion.

So, what difference does it make if he spends $3.2 billion himself compared to the rumored "profit" of $24 billion this time?

Thus, the rush to claim that Trump "made a fortune" in the hundreds of billions is a shallow and ridiculous analysis.

The level of absurdity is akin to a rural farmer imagining himself as an emperor, thinking, "I will control all the dung in the village."

It’s quite amusing to judge Trump with the mindset of a low-end internet celebrity.

So why does the wealthy Trump want to issue coins?

I believe, based on the current information, what he aims for is to—hijack or privatize the Republican Party's campaign funding.

Campaign funding is the lifeblood of the American two-party system. The back-and-forth struggles between the Republican and Democratic parties, or even within each party, essentially revolve around money.

The recently concluded 2024 U.S. election broke records again, becoming the most expensive election in American history, with both parties spending a total of $15.9 billion. This scale is the true amount that the market value of "Trump Coin" can actually "utilize."

But the wool comes from the sheep; the campaign funds of both parties ultimately come from their supporting voters or industry giants. However, how this money is collected, managed, and spent has always been a key part of determining the distribution of power within the Republican and Democratic parties.

I still remember the 2016 election between Hillary and Trump, during which the Democratic Party had a rather intriguing internal scandal. At that time, the outgoing Obama had a list of major donors from his campaign. According to the traditional rules of the Democratic Party, Obama should have handed this crucial "donor list" directly to his successor, Hillary, during the campaign preparation.

But Obama chose not to do so! His choice was to hand the list over to the Democratic National Committee, which then passed it on to Hillary.

This caused quite a delay, and Hillary lost to Trump that year, with Obama bearing some of the blame, leading to some unpleasantness between the two later on.

But why did Obama insist on doing it this way? There are many explanations.

Some say it reflects the long-standing friction between the Obama family and the Clinton family, with Obama being quite reluctant to use his reputation to endorse Hillary's fundraising.

Others say that Obama's move aimed to end the long-standing practice within the Democratic Party where various families privately granted "fundraising rights" and engaged in secret transactions, thus putting an end to the "Godfather" style tradition within the party, which was marked by families, big shots, and factions.

Regardless, whoever controls the "fundraising rights" is the boss, and that determines whether the party's candidate can be elected or not.

This truth holds for both the Republican and Democratic parties.

On the Republican side, after the betrayal of the establishment during the "Capitol Hill Riot" in 2021, Trump, who returned in 2024, has been focused on transforming the traditional Republican Party into a MAGA party loyal to him. In fact, he was close to achieving this last year.

The biggest sign of Trump's success is that the campaign funds raised by the Republican Party in the 2024 election no longer go into the party's accounts as they did in the past, but instead into a private account of Trump's campaign team. This means that how the campaign money is spent, what strategies are used for promotion, who gets funding, and who doesn't, is entirely decided by Trump himself.

This change led to the fact that in the 2024 campaign, all Republican campaign activities no longer included projects that Trump deemed "unnecessary" or even contrary to his views, as was the case in 2020.

I must say, he is indeed spending his money more wisely than the Republican establishment.

And you can imagine that if this model continues in the future, even if Trump is limited by term limits and cannot participate in the next election four years later, the "successor" the Republican Party puts forward will definitely come from Trump's team, or the "MAGA Party."

But how can this "ideal future" be ensured?

The answer may very well be—Trump Coin.

In the first part of the article, we analyzed that meme coins (this term is too cumbersome to type, so let's uniformly refer to them as meme coins from now on) actually have no real value; they have only been used for internet celebrities to monetize their influence, "harvesting another wave of leeks and running away."

But in Trump's case, he might develop a different use for meme coins—Trump could use it to "dilute" the past support enthusiasm of voters for the Republican Party, which only erupted during the campaign, and transform it into long-term support and admiration for Trump himself.

Let’s put it simply:

If you are a center-right or right-wing voter in the U.S. who agrees with the Republican Party's principles and generally supports Trump's views, your main means of expressing support for the Republican Party and Trump in the past could only be through donating to the party's account during the campaign, or at most registering as a volunteer to help with campaigning.

But with the emergence of Trump's Trump Coin, the situation changes. Now, as long as you have right-wing enthusiasm and want to shout "Make America Great Again, Trump King!" or "Make America Great Again!", you can immediately log onto the Solana chain, use your real money to buy a few Trump Coins, and then tell yourself, "I am supporting Trump with my actions!"

This way, that portion of support is conveniently solidified by Trump Coin.

And the enthusiasm of right-wing voters in the U.S. is thus digested (or more accurately, "stored") in the ordinary course of things.

But please note, the ultimate beneficiary of this digestion and storage is no longer the Republican Party as a political entity, but Trump himself.

Four years later, when the Republican Party needs to use this energy to organize a campaign, they will find it difficult to raise money using traditional fundraising methods. Supporters will say, "I already bought Trump Coins!" At that time, the Republican Party will have to beg Trump, who has already "stored" the right-wing support funds in advance.

Whether or not to give this money, and to whom, will depend on the mood of "King Trump."

We can even make a more extreme assumption (although based on current economic knowledge, I also think this assumption is too sci-fi):

If four years later, Trump Coin does not lose value like ordinary meme coins and continues to circulate at a high trading value, what will happen?

The conclusion is that it could really become a "universal token" for allocating campaign funds within the American right-wing political groups—

For example, if a certain candidate's actions deeply earn Trump's approval, he could give them tens of thousands of "Trump Coins," which they could then exchange with right-wing supporters for campaign funds, potentially leading to their successful election as a congressman.

If this assumption becomes a reality, it would mean that Trump would not only control the financial power of the Republican Party in the four-year presidential election but also the financial power for elections of congressmen and governors in various states, and even the financial power for right-wing media during their promotions.

What a terrifying level of detailed control that would be, with mobilization and dictatorship powers that no previous U.S. president has ever possessed.

Thus, Trump's vision is sharp. As analyzed in the first part, meme coins are fundamentally different from Bitcoin; they are not decentralized but are, in fact, more centralized than traditional currencies. Trump recognized this and chose this currently near-joke of a concept to attempt to fulfill his ambitions.

The Roman emperors printed their portraits on coins, which was merely a nominal claim to monetary sovereignty. In reality, Roman emperors had no way to control or restrict the flow of political funds.

But once Trump's "Trump Coin" is established, it could indeed exert an unprecedented and terrifying control over American politics.

However, the practice of any strongman's ambitions will always come at a cost.

We must ask, what price will America pay for Trump's actions?

3. The Alienation of America’s "Marius's Mules"

In the history of ancient Rome, there is a famous concept known as "Marius's Mules." Historians say that it was Marius's Mules that pried Rome away from the Republic and into the Empire.

Roughly speaking, this historical transition occurred as follows—ancient Rome originally practiced a citizen-soldier system where Roman citizens farmed and conducted business, and when war broke out, they would leave their livelihoods behind, bring their own weapons and supplies, and participate in defending their homeland.

However, as Rome faced increasingly intense and prolonged wars against foreign tribes, the citizen-soldier system gradually became inadequate to meet the demands of warfare. After the brutal Second Punic War and the Jugurthine War, the consul Marius pushed for the military reform named after him—Marius's Reform.

In general, Marius's Reform transformed the previous citizen militia into a professional army, stipulating that any willing and qualified Roman citizen, including the landless, could enlist. The state would directly allocate funds from taxes to governors or military commanders during wartime to purchase weapons or convert them into supplies for the soldiers.

In the short term, Marius's Reform significantly enhanced the combat effectiveness of the Roman army, leading Rome onto a path of rapid expansion.

However, in the long term, the Marius military reform caused a fatal change in Rome: the nature of the soldiers transformed fundamentally—they were no longer simple citizens concerned about their distant hometowns, lands, and families, but rather a group of mercenaries who would do anything as long as the general or governor paid them, provided food, and promised rewards.

The financial power structure that previously maintained the republic in Rome also changed—the citizen soldiers used to provide their own weapons and supplies to defend their homeland, and the entire financial system supporting the army was chaotic and decentralized. Now, the governors of the provinces became the concentrated financial power controlling the soldiers' rations and serving as their benefactors.

The soldiers even directly referred to the governors as "Dominus" (Latin for "master" or "lord"), pledging absolute loyalty to them.

Thus, the governors grew so powerful that it paved the way for figures like Caesar to cross the Rubicon, return, threaten the Senate, and become a lifelong dictator.

The term "Marius's Mules" emerged at this time, as soldiers tied all their supplies, pay, and spoils of war to a stick and carried it. They humorously referred to it as "Marius's Stick."

The soldiers' attachment to their property as citizens was thus replaced; they only pledged loyalty to the stick and the Dominus behind it who provided for them.

This stick ultimately pried open a fracture in Roman history.

Comparing the past and present, we find that the "Trump Coin" issued by Trump may very well become the "Marius's Stick" that pries open a fracture in American history.

In the U.S., political figures like the president, despite their immense prestige and influence, cannot be immediately converted into cash.

The president's appeal requires a whole set of party and media support, especially their respective financial systems, to mobilize their supporters and convert it into political power for their use.

During this conversion process, the president's appeal is constrained by this series of intermediary tools, and many social elites will question during the mobilization process: Is the president's call legitimate? Does it conform to American political traditions and norms? Does it align with their own interests?

If it does not conform, the mobilization cannot be achieved.

This creates a powerful objective constraint that prevents political figures from acting arbitrarily.

A typical example is the "Capitol Riot" that occurred in 2021.

Although Trump had the intention and ability to mobilize his supporters to "storm the Capitol," he could not invoke the legitimacy and subsequent support from the government and Republican Party system that theoretically should obey him, so the movement ultimately failed.

Even Trump's own Twitter account was banned after the incident.

However, the new method invented by Trump may very well bypass this mature oversight system—because Trump, through Trump Coin, directly "cashes out" his influence. As mentioned earlier, this system will replace the previous fundraising institutions of the Republican Party, completing the "energy storage" for right-wing support in America. In the future, if Trump needs it, he can directly use Trump Coin to allocate the funds most needed for political activities to his supporters.

This way, the political power of voters supporting Trump is immediately converted into monetary power, which is then transformed back into political power, directly nurturing Trump's staunch supporters. It is akin to the electric drive used in the Porsche Tiger tank favored by Hitler; this circumvention bypasses the original elite-controlled constraint system of American politics.

The result is that, just as the governors of the provinces were no longer remotely controlled by the republic after Marius's military reform, Trump also finally breaks free from the "deep state" (which is essentially the existing party mobilization system) that he despises.

But just as Marius's Stick paved the way for Caesar to "cross the Rubicon," what will Trump do with his unrestrained "Marius's Stick"? No one knows.

Remember, a "convenient method" that bypasses existing institutional constraints is always created by an ambitious individual and ultimately distorted and ruined to absurdity by a group of greedy speculators.

Such absurdities occurred during the "Crisis of the Third Century" in the Roman Empire—where the Praetorian Guard set prices for the emperor's position and held public auctions, with the highest bidder winning. Rome became a "cash cow" exploited by the emperor and the Praetorian Guard, turning the noble "public affairs" of Rome into a grotesque business. This was the inevitable consequence of the system established when the governors directly fed the army.

Similarly, if Trump's coin issuance can proceed as he plans, the U.S. presidential election may very well head down such an absurd path—

For example, a certain figure announces their candidacy for president, appealing to extreme voters with radical policies, and once elected or even just creating a climate of dissent, they openly announce "issuing coins," then harvest a wave of profits and achieve financial freedom, disappearing.

Politics will no longer be politics; slogans, especially extreme ones, will become tools for those with ulterior motives to profit.

While I believe Trump himself does not aim for this—his goal, perhaps due to the experiences of the past four years, is to take revenge and achieve his "crossing the Rubicon" against the Democratic Party and the Republican establishment, thus gaining control of the situation.

But undoubtedly, he will become the "originator" in this regard—because he has opened a channel for the exchange between politics and money that was previously thought impossible. This lays the groundwork for more convenient systemic corruption in America.

Because—let me reiterate—any "convenient method" that bypasses existing institutional constraints is always created by an ambitious individual and will ultimately be distorted and ruined by a group of greedy speculators.

What is the influence and appeal of political figures like the president supposed to be?

It should be a public good. It is not influence that Trump holds entirely for himself. People support Trump because he represents a certain political wish of a significant number of Americans.

However, when Trump cashes out this social influence, which should belong to the public good, through issuing coins, the money he gains is private wealth. Even if Trump reinvests this money into political activities through "Trump Coin," the political influence he converts will only represent his personal will.

This will be a most exquisite form of "quasi-money laundering" (laundering influence) and the most blatant conversion of public into private.

And can the American system rein in Trump's rampage? It seems very difficult at present.

Certainly, Congress could pass a law similar to "the president or presidential candidates are not allowed to issue meme coins." But such a law would also require the president's signature and the approval of the Supreme Court to ensure it is not unconstitutional.

This means that it must pass through the three "cheese holes" of legislation, administration, and judiciary to ultimately fill the gap in the institutional cage that the founding fathers of America could never have imagined.

However, at least during Trump's term, with his current influence and momentum, he will definitely not allow such a self-defeating bill to pass.

Moreover, issuing coins is likely just the first of a series of similar attempts by Trump. Trump himself is a top-notch businessman, and with Musk's support, frankly, I don't believe a group of politicians can outmaneuver these two commercial geniuses leading the charge.

Thus, a struggle between the establishment and the Senate over the destruction of the existing order and the maintenance of the existing order is about to unfold with Trump's return to the White House.

And this will gamble the direction and fate of America for the next several hundred years.

Two thousand years ago, a very similar struggle played out in Rome, but with Marius's military reform, Caesar crossing the Rubicon, and the public at Caesar's funeral, driven by hunger and cold and swayed by Antony's rhetoric, recklessly calling for a "new Caesar," the Republicans suffered a crushing defeat to Caesar's faction, and Rome gradually transformed from a republic to an empire, inevitably leading to rapid corruption, ultimately ending absurdly with the barbarian Praetorian Guard auctioning off the imperial throne.

This time, will the Republican resistance be more powerful and resolute? Or is the new Augustus on the path to coronation?

The overture has ended,

The curtain of the theater is rising,

We shall wait and see.

The end of the text.

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