The question from my friend is quite good. Why do I consider the power transition so important? Here are three reasons:
Historically, whenever there has been a rise after a major election, the power transition often sees significant gains. This can be seen as the first surge after the election. It’s like trying to find a sword in a boat, but this boat has rarely capsized in history. This is also why, in September and October, when #BTC was about to drop below $50,000, I still insisted that the election could bring about a rise. Since history has not been wrong, I have to believe that if it does go wrong, we can discuss it then.
The biggest difference this time is that for the first time in history, a U.S. president has publicly expressed support for cryptocurrency multiple times during and after the campaign. This is not the end of it; more importantly, this president has appointed high-level officials, including those from the CFTC, SEC, and economic advisors, who are friendly towards cryptocurrency. This means that Trump is not just making empty promises; he genuinely intends to advance cryptocurrency in the U.S.
Even if the first two points may encounter some setbacks, with the departure of SEC Chairman Gary and the appointment of a new SEC chairman, it is inevitable that funds will submit new applications for spot ETFs, as well as for #ETH spot ETF staking and #BTC spot ETF delivery. All of these are positive for cryptocurrency.
In Biden's final period, the SAB121 bill, which was vetoed by the president, and the FIT21 bill, which has not yet passed Congress, are both very helpful for cryptocurrency. The probability of these two bills passing is very high.
After the transition, we will see the Q4 2024 earnings reports for U.S. stocks. Although cryptocurrency and U.S. stocks are not performing well right now, the fourth quarter may be quite good. Companies like $MSTR, $COIN, and many mining stocks will release earnings reports, and positive data will still have a stimulating effect on the market.
In fact, there are many scattered reasons, but they are not as important. Therefore, I believe the probability of a rise due to the power transition is very high. While I can't say it's 100%, I believe it is definitely above 50%, and the power transition has not been priced in. Everyone is waiting to see if Trump will say:
Make BTC Great in the United States of America.
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