As Donald Trump officially takes office as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, this definitive signal heralds a series of upcoming reform measures, particularly targeting the emerging cryptocurrency industry. With Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark to create a new high, it seems the crypto industry has fallen into a quagmire, with Bitcoin oscillating around the $100,000 threshold. Coupled with the upcoming extended period of crypto news vacuum in February, the market outlook requires cautious handling.

From Campaign to Gunshot to Election: The Biggest Benefits and Expectations Have Been Given in Advance!

Looking at the entire process from Trump's campaign to his election, he presented ten new policies for cryptocurrency at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, most of which were framed as "If I am elected, I will XXXX." Let's review them together:

● Make the United States the global cryptocurrency capital

● Stop the crackdown on the crypto industry within one hour of taking office

● Prevent the U.S. government from further developing CBDC

● Establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve

● Fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler

● Prevent the U.S. from selling its held Bitcoin

● Propose using cryptocurrency to solve the U.S. debt problem

● Present a comprehensive cryptocurrency policy

● Establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee

● Reduce the prison sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht

Among these, "Make the United States the global cryptocurrency capital" particularly places the crypto community in the spotlight, allowing more voters involved in cryptocurrency trading to support his presidential campaign. Trump's series of statements injected optimism into the market, but with the end of the inauguration ceremony, there were no immediate concrete actions to fulfill these promises, leading some investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

However, just two days ago, Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, initially promoted as an economic development announcement, revealing plans by Dubai developer Damac Properties to invest $20 billion in building data centers in the U.S. But during this press conference, Trump introduced four new topics: increasing military spending ratios for NATO member countries, making Canada the 51st state of the U.S., not giving up military control of the Panama Canal and Greenland, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to "American Gulf."

The implied "territorial expansion desire" in his words suddenly heightened international tensions, with sentiments of confrontation between nations spreading, which indirectly caused "turmoil" in the crypto market, leading to a downward trend. According to news on January 7, Coinglass data showed that $346 million in cryptocurrency market contracts were liquidated within 24 hours, including $282 million in long positions and $63.47 million in short positions. The total liquidation amount for BTC was $69.59 million, and for ETH, it was $59.68 million.

From the "Fight!" statement after being shot during the campaign, to the pro-crypto remarks during the Bitcoin conference, to finally being elected president, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the crypto industry, which in turn has provided him with more support and funding. As he officially takes office on January 20, the crypto industry is likely to enter a phase where "real benefits landing could mean bad news."

February: No Wind, No Waves, Market Consolidation

Let's take a look at the Federal Reserve's meeting schedule for 2025.

First Meeting: January 28-29, 2025, for interest rate decision

Second Meeting: March 18-19, 2025, for interest rate decision + economic outlook

StarEx exchange analysts believe that strong data has dampened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. Previously, the market widely expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2025, but this expectation has been quickly revised down following recent economic data releases. Some analysis institutions even believe that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates at all this year, and if it does, the extent will be very limited. Aditya Bhave, an economist at Bank of America, stated in a report to clients on Wednesday, "More and more signs indicate that inflation is on the rise," suggesting that given the timing of the government transition, the Federal Reserve may have completed its last rate cut of this cycle.

In conjunction, regarding the first Federal Reserve meeting, the recent significant pullback in U.S. stocks has also brought considerable uncertainty to the market, making it highly likely that this month's meeting will maintain the current interest rate without cuts, leaving the market without more positive news in the short term.

Additionally, reviewing major Web3 calendars, the crypto industry in February appears calm, with no significant actions taking place, leading to a crypto news vacuum period. The cryptocurrency market in February is likely to show a trend of consolidation with low trading volume and reduced volatility. Cryptocurrency prices will fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, with neither a clear upward trend nor a significant downward trend. Moreover, trading activity will decrease, leading to an overall reduction in market activity and smaller price fluctuations.

Crypto Trendsetter Musk: X Will Not Use Cryptocurrency for Payments in the Near Future

Recently, Musk discussed topics related to X Payments during a live test on X, stating: "There are currently no plans to use cryptocurrency in X Payments services; we need a license. We are currently focused on fiat currency and are concentrating on effectively launching X Payments services."

This statement does not prove that Musk does not support cryptocurrency; perhaps it is due to compliance considerations for platform payments, as fiat currency payments are more aligned with current development needs and compliance requirements. However, this has left many crypto enthusiasts feeling as if they were struck by a blow, creating a sense of panic.

Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest blog post "Sasa" that in the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether dollar liquidity can offset the slow implementation of Trump's policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice. This also reflects that the market direction in the first quarter is difficult to grasp, making it nearly impossible to capture definite positive news, and a cautious wait-and-see approach may not be a better choice.

Conclusion

Although Trump painted a hopeful blueprint for the crypto industry during his campaign and promised to make the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital, his actual actions after taking office remain unclear. As the crypto news vacuum period enters in February, market participants need to be wary of potential policy uncertainties and the impact of international situation changes on the market. After Trump's official inauguration, whether the crypto ideal he envisioned can stir up new waves in the crypto space, or whether the promised new crypto policies can be quickly implemented, will be enough to form a new round of positive news, continuing to push Bitcoin towards higher market levels.

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