Author: Robbie Petersen

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Prediction #1: Frontend Will Dominate Value Capture

As the MEV supply chain matures, participants who control exclusive order flow will capture more value.

The reason is simple. Various participants downstream of the order flow—such as DEXs, seekers, builders, and validators—will face intensified competition. Meanwhile, the originators of the order flow (i.e., the frontend) will hold a natural monopoly advantage in the MEV supply chain.

This means that the only role capable of increasing yield without significantly losing market share is the frontend, especially those frontends that control "fee-sensitive" order flow (e.g., digital wallets).

Additionally, emerging technologies like conditional liquidity (e.g., @DFlowProtocol) will further drive the development of this trend.

Prediction #2: DePIN Market Cap Will Grow 5x by 2025

Market leaders in decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), such as @Helium and @Hivemapper, will approach a tipping point in their network effects. Meanwhile, @dawninternet will emerge as the most groundbreaking application in the DePIN space due to significant technological improvements and crypto-economic incentives.

Prediction #3: Limited Application of Crypto Payment Rails in Agent Transactions

In the early stages, transactions between humans and agents will still rely on traditional payment rails. Stripe and PayPal will dominate the early agent payment infrastructure through "for benefit of" (FBO) account structures.

However, only when the autonomy of agents reaches a certain level will the high-cost model of traditional payment rails reveal its limitations. With the rise of microtransactions and usage-based pricing demands, traditional payment rails (approximately 3% fees) will become unsustainable.

Nevertheless, this situation will not occur by 2025, as most transactions will still be interactions between humans and agents. (Refer to the tweet)

Prediction #4: Stablecoins Will Bridge the Application Gap in Fintech

The role of stablecoins will shift from being the "lubricant" of DeFi (decentralized finance) to a true medium of exchange.

This transition is driven by two main reasons for fintech companies adopting stablecoins: (1) enhancing profitability, and (2) strategically controlling more of the payment chain.

As the widespread adoption of stablecoins becomes a necessity for fintech companies' survival, the number of monthly active stablecoin addresses is expected to exceed 50 million.

Prediction #5: Visa Launches Stablecoin Initiative, Actively Adjusts Profit Structure

In anticipation of potential disruptive changes in the payment chain, Visa is proactively laying out a stablecoin initiative. While this may cut into the profits of its card network, this risk is seen as more manageable compared to being completely disrupted by the market. This logic also applies to other fintech companies and banks.

Prediction #6: "Yield-Distribution" Stablecoins' Market Share Will Grow 10x

"Yield-distribution" stablecoins (such as USDG @Paxos, "M" @m0foundation, and AUSD @withAUSD) are changing the economic model of stablecoins by redistributing the profits traditionally earned by stablecoin issuers to applications that provide liquidity to the network.

Although Tether will still maintain its market dominance in 2025, the "yield-distribution" stablecoin model is considered the future direction for the following reasons:

(1) Importance of Distribution Channels: Unlike previous attempts to directly attract end-users, "yield-distribution" stablecoins target applications with distribution channels. This model synchronizes the incentives of distributors and issuers for the first time.

(2) Power of Network Effects: By incentivizing multiple applications to integrate simultaneously, "yield-distribution" stablecoins can fully leverage the network effects of the entire distributor ecosystem.

By 2025, the market share of these stablecoins will significantly increase as distributors (especially fintech companies) collaborate with market makers, as they can create more direct benefits for distributors.

Prediction #7: The Boundary Between Wallets and Applications Will Blur

Wallets will gradually integrate application-like features, such as deposit yields (e.g., @fusewallet), credit accounts (e.g., @GearboxProtocol), native trading functions, and chatbot-like interfaces where users can express needs, executed by AI agents and backend solvers.

At the same time, applications will also attempt to maintain direct relationships with end-users by concealing the existence of wallets. For example, the mobile application launched by @JupiterExchange is an early case.

The biggest driving force behind the centralization vision of wallets comes from exchanges like @coinbase, which view wallet products as the primary means for on-chain user monetization. (Refer to the tweet)

Prediction #8: Chain Abstraction Will Transition from Theory to Practice at the Wallet Level

Although discussions about chain abstraction have previously focused mainly on the chain and application layers, the optimal solution is to directly meet user needs. New technologies like @OneBalance_io's resource locks, @NEARProtocol's chain signatures, and @Safe's SafeNet are driving a new paradigm that achieves chain abstraction at the wallet level.

Prediction #9: General-purpose L2s Will Gradually Lose Relevance

The trend of concentration in blockchain activity can be summarized by one question:

As an application, why should I choose to run on your chain?

For a few general-purpose chains with clear positioning (like Solana and Base) and vertically integrated chains (like HypeEVM and Unichain), the answer is clear.

However, for those long-tail general-purpose chains, the answer is not so clear. By 2025, blockchain activity will increasingly concentrate on a few chains that can provide clear value to applications.

Prediction #10: The Boundary Between Attention and Value Will Gradually Disappear

As the most direct embodiment of attention value theory, the value of AI agent tokens will continue to grow.

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