Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)

In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a significant correction, dropping about 15% from its historical high of $108,300, with the price briefly falling to around $92,000. Currently, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes, the price of Bitcoin has recovered to around $96,000, entering a consolidation phase.

The continuous decline has severely impacted altcoins, with many token prices even falling to levels seen before October, erasing the "Trump effect" gains that followed Trump's election as President of the United States. Nevertheless, with the Christmas holiday approaching, many believe that the "Christmas crash" will further exacerbate the market downturn.

However, with 2025 approaching, a series of positive factors such as Trump's inauguration and Bitcoin's strategic reserve plan are set to unfold, and the cryptocurrency industry is still expected to welcome a new round of "dawn moments."

Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the views of industry professionals, the buying trends of institutions, and some on-chain activities in this article, providing readers with a more comprehensive perspective on the market.

Overview of Industry Perspectives: Majority Bullish, Minority Bearish

From the perspective of mainstream industry figures, most believe that the current correction in the BTC market is only temporary, mainly due to the rapid breakthrough of the new high around $108,000. Meanwhile, altcoin holders are in a state of eager selling, leading to market fluctuations downward. As 2024 comes to a close and 2025 approaches, BTC is expected to continue reaching new highs.

CZ: Waiting for New Headlines, Bitcoin Continues to Set New Highs

Binance co-founder CZ recently stated that he is waiting for new headlines as Bitcoin continues to set new highs. Previously, he tweeted four years ago that BTC "crashed" from $101,000 to $85,000, waiting for news headlines to report.

Cathie Wood: BTC Will Become Scarcer Than Gold Due to Institutional Demand

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin "is becoming scarcer than gold," and she previously predicted that by 2030, the price of BTC will exceed $1 million.

Bitwise CIO: BTC Has Three Unstoppable Sources of Demand: ETF, MicroStrategy, and Government Buyers

On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan pointed out three "unstoppable" sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETFs, MicroStrategy, and the government potentially becoming Bitcoin buyers. He added, "It ultimately comes down to supply and demand. Too much demand, not enough supply, so I believe the price in 2025 will be higher."

Trader Peter Brandt: BTC May Continue to Rise, Recent Price Target of $125,000

After BTC recently fell below the $91,000 mark, it showed a strong rebound this weekend, currently slightly retreating to around $96,000. During this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reiterated his bullish view on BTC and stated that it may continue to rise in the future. Additionally, other on-chain indicators also suggest a positive momentum for BTC in the future. In a recent analysis, Brandt indicated that BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.

Peter Brandt's candlestick analysis

However, he also cited technical charts warning that BTC prices in an upward trend could pull back to $76,614, adding that "this is not a prediction," pointing out the risks present in the market. He stated that these analyses only reflect "possibilities, not probabilities, and not certainties." Furthermore, his recently set price target for BTC is $125,000.

Lark Davis: Current Correction Is Not the "End of the Bull Market," Market Still Has Plenty of Fuel

Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis analyzed historical data and believes that the current correction in the crypto market is not the "end of the bull market." He stated, "In December 2020, after a 77% rise from October to November, BTC fell by 12%. Subsequently, it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 in the next 23 days (a 136% increase). A similar situation is happening now, with Bitcoin experiencing a 13% drop after a significant rise in the fourth quarter. This does not mean this is the bottom; we may see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market still have plenty of fuel."

Analyst: Bitcoin's Current Correction Is Highly Related to Coinbase's Sell-off Since October 26

The recent drop in BTC's price marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, which has quickly turned from extremely bullish to uncertain and cautious. As altcoins have been severely impacted, Bitcoin's correction has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent upward trend.

Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment coincides with the most severe sell-off activity from Coinbase since October 26 (when BTC was trading at $66,000). The increased selling pressure clearly indicates a shift in the market from a bullish sentiment to one filled with fear and hesitation. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased selling pressure suggests that the market is struggling to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 mark for support.

Bitfinex: Bitcoin May Reach $200,000 by Mid-2025, While Maintaining a Mild Correction Trend

Bitfinex analysts stated in a recent market report that due to strong institutional demand, Bitcoin's downturn in 2025 will be short-lived, predicting that in the best-case scenario, Bitcoin's price will double by June 2025, with a minimum price estimated to "reach $145,000 by mid-2025, potentially rising to $200,000 under favorable conditions."

Analysts stated, "We believe that any adjustments in 2025 will remain mild due to institutional capital inflows." They noted that while volatility is expected in the first quarter of 2025, the "broader trend" indicates that its price will continue to rise, thanks to the ongoing inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased global and institutional adoption.

CryptoQuant CEO: Current Market Is Not a Traditional Altcoin Season, but an Independent Market for Individual Tokens

On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 6% (with XRP contributing 3%), but it has started to recover. Currently, only a few altcoins are attracting new liquidity, and the capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited.

He believes that this is not a traditional altcoin season, but an independent market for individual tokens that are performing well.

Trader Eugene: Altcoin Investors Eager to Sell Spot, Market May Enter a Longer Consolidation Phase

Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio expressed his views on the altcoin market, stating, "Altcoins (Alts) quickly fell back to these levels within 48 hours after forming wick lows, indicating that investors are extremely anxious about holding spot assets and are eager to sell. The market may enter a longer adjustment phase or quickly decline in a short time."

Analyst: Seeing Significant Corrections in a Cryptocurrency Bull Market Is "Very Typical"

Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new historical high of over $108,000, and the recent decline in the crypto market has had a greater impact on altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin. Last Thursday, a group of U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin ended a 15-day streak of inflows, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.

Strahinja Savic, head of data and analysis at FRNT Financial stated that seeing such significant corrections in a cryptocurrency bull market is "very typical," while QCP Capital noted in a report that the fundamental reason for the sell-off is the market's "overly optimistic" positions.

Strong Buying: BTC ETF Continues to Inflow, Governments and Corporations Follow Suit

From the perspective of market fundamentals, we are still in the "sweet spot" of institutional trading, with funds from U.S. BTC ETFs, El Salvador, U.S. listed companies, and Japanese listed companies continuously purchasing BTC, with holding costs not significantly different from BTC's spot price. Institutions are relatively optimistic about BTC's future performance.

Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, Governments, and MSTR Currently Hold 31% of All Bitcoin, Doubling from Last Year

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released an update on Bitcoin holdings pie chart, stating that ETFs, governments, and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoin, up from 14% last year.

BTC Holdings Pie Chart Information

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Trading Volume Reaches $26 Billion in Week 50, $17.5 Billion Inflows in Q4 So Far

According to Trader T's monitoring, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $463 million in week 50, with a trading volume of $26 billion. Additionally:

• The inflow for Bitcoin ETFs in the fourth quarter so far is $17.5 billion (the best quarter);

• BlackRock's IBIT inflow is $1.452 billion;

• Other ETFs saw outflows of $989 million.

El Salvador Increases BTC Purchases, Mid-term Goal to Accumulate 20,000 BTC

On December 21, Bitcoin Magazine reported that Max Keiser, a senior Bitcoin advisor to President Bukele of El Salvador, revealed: "President Bukele has increased the daily Bitcoin purchase rate, with a mid-term goal of acquiring an additional 20,000 Bitcoins." On December 22, El Salvador's wallet address added approximately 11 BTC (worth $1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Previously, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain a $1.4 billion credit line, but it included a requirement to "reduce Bitcoin risk." When asked about Bitcoin's status as legal tender in El Salvador, IMF spokesperson Kozak stated that the use of Bitcoin would be voluntary.

In the latest news, Stacy Herbert, director of El Salvador's Bitcoin office, clarified that even after reaching the agreement, the country will continue to "accelerate" Bitcoin purchases as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will remain the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin office reported that the "1 BTC per day" purchase plan will continue.

Additionally, the country made extra purchases, adding 30 BTC in the past 7 days and 53 BTC in the past 30 days.

Australia's Monochrome Spot Bitcoin ETF Holds 272 BTC

As of December 19, Australia's Monochrome Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) holds 272 BTC, with an AUM of approximately $44.3454 million.

Australia's BTC ETF Continues to Accumulate

Statistics: At Least 10 Companies Are Adopting or Considering MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy

According to statistics, at least 10 companies are adopting or considering MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:

• AI company Genius Group: currently holds 294 BTC;

• Pickup solutions provider Worksport: the company's board approved an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP;

• Amazon: shareholders proposed that the company's board evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to its financial strategy;

• MicroStrategy: currently holds 439,000 BTC;

• MARA Holdings: currently holds 44,394 BTC;

• Tesla: currently holds 9,720 BTC;

• Coinbase: currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;

• Hut 8 Mining Corp: currently holds 10,096 BTC;

• Block Inc.: currently holds 8,027 BTC;

• OneMedNet: currently holds 34 BTC.

Among them, Bitcoin mining company MARA previously disclosed data stating that it raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, worth approximately $1.53 billion, and repurchased about $263 million of its existing convertible notes maturing in 2026, expecting to use the remaining proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19 to become the fourth publicly traded company to hold over 10,000 BTC.

Japanese Listed Company Metaplanet Increases Holdings by 619.7 BTC

On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 619.7 BTC, spending a total of 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of about $97,800; its total BTC holdings increased to 1,761.98 BTC.

Increase Purchase Documentation

Glassnode: Bitcoin's Retracement Severity in Bull Market Trends Has Decreased, Most Corrections Around 25%

Glassnode previously stated, "Interestingly, as the market grows, the severity of Bitcoin's retracement in the bull market trend has decreased. The deepest retracement during this cycle was -32% (on August 5, 2024), while most corrections were only about 25% down from previous highs, reflecting the demand for spot ETFs and increasing institutional interest."

Glassnode Indicates Decreasing Retracement Severity

On-Chain Activity: Growth in Wallet Addresses, Awakening of Dormant Addresses, Long-term Holders Exiting

On-chain activity shows a polarized phenomenon: on one hand, over an extended time frame, the number of non-empty addresses for mainstream cryptocurrencies has increased by varying degrees, starting at least 25%; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses that have been dormant for over 10 years are awakening, and many long-term BTC holders are gradually exiting.

In the Past Two Years, Non-Empty Wallets for BTC and ETH Increased by 27% and 47% Respectively

Santiment reported that the number of cryptocurrency holders has significantly increased over the past two years. Here are the non-empty wallet counts for the top four cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:

BTC: 54.7 million (+27%);

ETH: 134.9 million (+47%);

USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);

XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).

Analyst: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC Withdrawn from Exchanges This Month

On December 20, crypto analyst AIi stated that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.

Continuous Outflow of BTC from Exchanges

Long-term Bitcoin Holders Have Sold 1 Million BTC Since September

In mid-December, long-term Bitcoin holders have been selling large amounts of Bitcoin, with their total holdings decreasing from about 14.2 million in mid-September to about 13.2 million. Bitcoin's current trading price is about 13% lower than the historical high of around $108,000, which is the highest level since Trump won the U.S. election in early November.

According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, marking the fourth-largest single-day sell-off this year.

Recently Activated Addresses Holding Over $20 Million After Years of Dormancy

Bitcoin fell below $96,000 on December 22, down about 11% since breaking through $108,000 on December 17, 2024.

Meanwhile, at the Bitcoin network block height of 875,560, a wallet that had been dormant since July 25, 2015, was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, marking its first activity since creation. The same user actually transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old addresses (P2PKH) to two Pay-to-Witness-Public-Key-Hash (P2WPKH) wallets. Of this, 44.99 BTC originated from 2015, when the BTC trading price was $290. Then, after 43 blocks, several wallets from 2017 began to activate, transferring small amounts of Bitcoin (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.

This pattern of sending Bitcoin fragments cleverly conceals larger-scale transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, valued at approximately $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet was activated after 12 years of dormancy, transferring 104.99 BTC, which was worth only $11 at the time, totaling $1,200. Today, these BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also migrated from an old P2PKH address to a new P2WPKH address.

Continuous Outflow of BTC from Exchanges: Coinbase's Blood Loss Accelerates

Coinglass data shows that the current balance of Bitcoin wallets on Coinbase Pro is 733,076.34 BTC, ranking first among CEXs; in the past 24 hours, there was an inflow of 16.69 BTC, with an outflow of 14,661.50 BTC in the past 7 days and 70,185.16 BTC in the past 30 days.

Binance's Bitcoin wallet balance is 571,802.93 BTC, with an inflow of 1,458.46 BTC in the past 24 hours, an inflow of 4,199.11 BTC in the past 7 days, and an outflow of 10,412.79 BTC in the past 30 days.

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