The information, opinions, and judgments regarding the market, projects, currencies, etc., mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

As a psychological barrier, the resistance effect of $100,000 depends on the strength of the will of the holder group. This week's trend indicates that once the major trends of funds and emotions are established, breaking through the psychological barrier is just a matter of time.

After four consecutive weeks of upward movement, BTC first fell and then rose this week, opening at $101,400, subsequently dipping to close at $104,447.76. After clearing out the floating profits eager to cash in and retesting the 5-week moving average, it gradually moved upward, ultimately surpassing $104,000 on Sunday.

This week, the U.S. released CPI and PPI data, which met expectations, slightly leaning negative, but the well-adjusted cryptocurrency market seems to have entered a "zero risk" gradual upward phase under the continuous support of inflowing funds.

Macroeconomic and Financial Data

This week, the U.S. reported a seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year of 2.7% at the end of November, marking an increase for the second consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, the largest rise since April.

Following the CPI data release, swap traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before the end of 2025. They expect a cumulative cut of 87 basis points by then. This means that in addition to a 25 basis point cut next week, there will be about two more cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points. This level of reduction is one less than the four cuts proposed in the latest quarterly dot plot from September.

In the U.S. stock market, there were mixed results. The Nasdaq rose by 0.34%, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell by 1.82% and 0.64%, respectively. London gold slightly increased by 0.16%.

This week, the European Central Bank again cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the deposit rate from 3.25% to 3%, and hinted that further cuts would continue.

In China, the Central Economic Work Conference stated, "We need to implement a more proactive macro policy to stabilize the real estate and stock markets." The subsequent Central Financial Work Conference mentioned, "We need to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and increase the fiscal deficit ratio. We need to implement moderately loose monetary policy and timely cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates." This marks the Chinese government's reintroduction of "moderately loose" monetary policy after 14 years.

Looking at the outlook for various countries, in 2025, the U.S. may face policy turbulence, potentially experiencing a rebound in inflation and a slowdown in interest rate cuts; Europe and China may see continued economic growth decline, necessitating the adoption of loose monetary policies to stimulate weak economic growth.

Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF

Although the Christmas holiday is approaching and market trading is becoming increasingly quiet, the cryptocurrency market still maintains relatively ample capital inflows. This week, BTC Spot ETF inflows totaled $2.174 billion, and stablecoin channels saw inflows of $3.768 billion, totaling $5.941 billion, which is a decrease from last week but still at a high level.

Sell-off

This week, a total of 268,581 BTC were transferred to exchanges from both long and short positions, with 256,826 from short positions and 11,755 from long positions, marking the second-largest sell-off week since November.

Strong buying power, especially from the BTC Spot ETF channel, absorbed the selling pressure. The total inventory on centralized exchanges decreased by 27,901 BTC over the week.

According to eMerge Engine under EMC Labs, the floating profit for short positions has decreased from a previous high of 33% to 25%, which is a neutral level in this bull market.

The decisive long position sell-off during the cycle phase has been continuously declining, and BTC prices are expected to rise gradually above $100,000 amidst fluctuations.

Cycle Indicators

The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase and showing strong upward momentum.

END

EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by cryptocurrency asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and investments in the crypto secondary market, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitiveness, aiming to participate in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting the benefits of blockchain and cryptocurrency assets for humanity.

For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund

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