Crypto Morning Report: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 86%. Tokens such as APT, ADA, and ENA will see significant unlocks this week.

CN
4 months ago

Ethereum's current trend is similar to that of 2016-2017 and may see explosive growth.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

Market Dynamics Yesterday

Binance Responds to USUAL and ACX Market Cap Data Errors: Caused by Direct Use of CMC Data, Will Optimize Related Processes in the Future

Binance stated on social media: "We have noticed recent community discussions regarding the token supply data of USUAL and ACX and conducted an internal investigation immediately. The specific cause of the incident is as follows: Binance displays the token circulation information of projects on the 'trading page' and 'price page' by directly using CoinMarketCap (CMC) data. Therefore, according to past processes, when the project party's data is not updated, the data on CMC and Binance pages will also be affected.

Regarding ACX: On December 6, the Binance team discovered that the circulation data of ACX was incorrect and immediately contacted the project party to correct the data on CMC; regarding USUAL: the change in token supply information is mainly due to different standards between CMC and the project party regarding the definition of liquidity and how to reference data. After discussion, the project party has also completed the correction on CMC. As mentioned above, we have clarified the root cause of the problem and conducted a post-analysis. In the future, we will strive to improve the collaboration and processes regarding token circulation and other related information display among the project party, CMC, and Binance, so that we can quickly verify key information about tokens before they go live and ensure the accuracy of the information to avoid similar issues."

Trump: No Plans to Replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell

According to Jinshi, U.S. President-elect Trump stated in an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he would not seek to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after taking office in January. When asked if he would seek to replace Powell, Trump told Welker: "No, I don't think so." "I think if I told him, he would (resign). But if I asked him (to resign), he might not."

Sushi Plans to Launch Multiple Products Including Solana-based Trading Platform Wara and On-chain Perpetual DEX Susa in 2025

Sushi CEO Jared Grey released the 2025 product roadmap, which will introduce the Solana-based comprehensive trading platform Wara, the on-chain order book perpetual DEX platform Susa, perpetual contract product Kubo, and anti-MEV LVR AMM solution Blade, among other new products. Additionally, the SushiSwap aggregator will expand its distribution by integrating new partners, and Grey hinted at a potential token airdrop in the future.

APT, ADA, ENA and Other Tokens Will See Large Unlocks This Week, APT Unlock Worth Approximately $160 Million

Token Unlocks data shows that tokens such as APT, ADA, and ENA will see large unlocks this week, including:

Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at midnight on December 12, Beijing time, accounting for 2.11% of the current circulation, worth about $160 million;

Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8 AM on December 11, Beijing time, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulation, worth about $22.24 million;

Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3 PM on December 11, Beijing time, accounting for 0.44% of the current circulation, worth about $12.88 million;

Bitget Token (BGB) will unlock approximately 5.38 million tokens at 8 AM on December 10, Beijing time, accounting for 0.38% of the current circulation, worth about $13.98 million;

io.net (IO) will unlock approximately 2.11 million tokens at 8 PM on December 11, Beijing time, accounting for 1.68% of the current circulation, worth about $7.46 million.

People's Court Report: "Mining" Condenses Social Abstract Labor, Theft of Virtual Currency Constitutes Theft Crime

The People's Court Report published an article titled "Criminal Law Qualification of Illegal Theft of Virtual Currency" on December 5, stating that several defendants agreed to use contract codes to fraudulently obtain USDT, stealing a total of 57,307.11 USDT from the victim Hu.

In this case, the People's Court Report analyzed that the defendants' actions violated the crime of illegally obtaining computer system data and theft, and this case should be recognized as theft. According to relevant regulations, whether it is legally protected is not necessarily related to whether it has property attributes; the relevant regulations only deny the legal currency status of virtual currency but do not deny the property attributes of virtual currency. As economic property, it must have value, including utility, scarcity, and disposability.

Scarcity is reflected in the constant total amount of virtual currency, which is not infinitely supplyable. Disposability is reflected in the use of asymmetric encryption technology for virtual currency, which exists in "wallets" (i.e., addresses), and once the address and private key are obtained, one can control the virtual currency.

Utility is reflected in virtual currency as specific data encoding, which must be generated through "mining," and "mining" condenses social abstract labor.

In real life, virtual currency can be transferred and traded, yielding calculable economic benefits, possessing both use value and exchange value. Therefore, virtual currency has property attributes, and the defendants' theft of virtual currency constitutes theft.

Analyst: Ethereum's Current Trend is Similar to 2016-2017 and May See Explosive Growth

According to Cointelegraph, data shows that Ethereum is experiencing a breakout trend similar to XRP, having broken through its three-year symmetrical triangle pattern's upper trend line in the week ending December 8. Market analyst VentureFounder predicts that Ethereum will see an "impulsive breakout" in the coming months, with its current trend resembling its cycle from 2016-2017, predicting a repeat of the explosive growth that drove ETH to new highs at that time.

VentureFounder stated that it is crucial for Ethereum to maintain $3,800 as support; successfully holding this level will increase the likelihood of retesting its historical high of $4,878 in the short term, after which it may continue to rise. He even predicts that the ETH price target is to reach $15,937 by May 2025, which would first push Ethereum's market cap to exceed $1 trillion.

Andrew Kang: ARB is Severely Undervalued, Stylus Platform May Become a Major Growth Driver

Andrew Kang, a partner at Mechanism Capital, stated on social media that despite Arbitrum ($ARB) recently experiencing strong growth, it is still severely undervalued from a fundamental perspective. Compared to projects like Sui, Avalanche, and Tron, the trading price of $ARB is only a small fraction of these projects, yet it has achieved several times their trading volume and TVL (Total Value Locked) (even without counting HL activities).

Kang noted that many institutional investors are currently focusing on these fundamental indicators rather than memes. He believes that supporting developers to use the Stylus platform built with Rust/C++, game deployment/Animechain, and ongoing cross-chain interoperability research will become the biggest driving force for Arbitrum's future growth.

Probability of Federal Reserve Cutting Rates by 25 Basis Points in December Rises to 86%

According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate in December is 14%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 86%.

Data: Top 15 Entities Holding Bitcoin Institutions Hold Approximately 1.647 Million Bitcoins

According to HODL15Capital, as of December 7, the top 15 entities holding Bitcoin institutions collectively hold approximately 1.647 million Bitcoins. BlackRock's IBIT holds 523,735 Bitcoins, ranking first, followed by MicroStrategy with 402,100 Bitcoins in second place, and Grayscale's GBTC with 212,385 Bitcoins in third.

Other major holding institutions include Fidelity FBTC (200,440 Bitcoins), Tether (82,454 Bitcoins), ARKB (48,393 Bitcoins), and BITB (41,062 Bitcoins), along with MARA Holdings (MARA), HODL, Tesla, Coinbase, HUT, BRRR, SQ, Tether, CLSK, and others.

Market Dynamics

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Analysis of Hyperliquid's Airdrop Model: Why Does the "Product First, Token Later" Approach Succeed?

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