Although it is still too early to predict the ultimate success or failure of OTG, its impact has already begun to manifest.

Author: 1mpal

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Just a week ago, the Web3 gaming space felt desolate. Most games were struggling to gain momentum for token listings, while meme coins attracted all the attention. But today, the situation has dramatically changed. The success of Off The Grid (@playoffthegrid) has injected new vitality into the field, igniting excitement and optimism, in stark contrast to Limit Break's hefty investment in Super Bowl advertising.

Of course, fun is subjective, so I won't rate the game here. However, my Web3-savvy friends generally believe that this game is “more fun than 99% of Web3 games.” Interestingly, they all added, “I play it because it’s genuinely engaging, but I don’t expect to gain any significant financial returns from it.”

A successful game can shake the entire market. In the short term, there won't be another game like OTG, and currently, no other Web3 game can compete with it in terms of marketing or gameplay performance. While it is still too early to predict the ultimate success or failure of OTG, its influence has already begun to show. Its impact will undoubtedly continue to shape the landscape of Web3 gaming for some time to come.

1. Separation of Game and Token

OTG has sold tokens and nodes, but they have not yet been fully utilized. If OTG ultimately fails, no one will blame the blockchain or the tokens. Conversely, if OTG succeeds, it may not have a direct relationship with the performance of the GUN Token. Whether the GUN Token will perform well remains to be seen. A game that primarily relies on tokens as a revenue model is challenging. It may be more appropriate to compare the future performance of tokens with cases like mythological games.

Let’s recall. How did we make money in MMORPGs like “Genesis of the Web,” “World of Warcraft,” or “RuneScape” (or “Lineage”)? Some collected in-game materials, some arbitraged based on patch notes, and others profited by crafting top-tier equipment and helping other players. The key was that players created all the supply within these systems. This is different from today’s developers who strictly control item supply. The core of a sustainable economic ecosystem has always been monetization through balancing supply and demand in the game. The peer-to-peer ecosystem that OTG organizes today also lacks developer control over supply.

Some may think now is the best time for OTG to list its tokens, but this view is overly biased towards Web3. Just as Web1 evolved into Web2, the goal of Web3 games is to address the issues of Web2 games and further evolve. Why do people play OTG? Is it for the GUN Token? Or to obtain NFT skins? Currently, it seems more about wanting to play with well-known streamers like Ninja and win matches. This indicates that economic factors are relatively weak in gaming motivation.

In the long run, for the sustainability of OTG, a wiser approach would be to continuously reinvest part of the revenue back into the game rather than repurchasing tokens. Running nodes also provides rewards, so there is no need for token buybacks, especially when the primary target users of the game have always been Web2 players. Games should not easily shift towards Web3 considerations. Regardless of how the GUN Token performs, the more successful OTG becomes, the greater the likelihood that the AVAX chain will be activated, making AVAX the only effective bet on OTG. For OTG players, tokens are just another form of payment.

2. Large-Scale Marketing and Timing

According to Web3 game founders, OTG is estimated to spend at least $1 million daily on marketing, especially to attract top streamers like Ninja and Shroud. In the short term, the most effective marketing strategy is to maximize exposure. While many Web3 organizations may tell you that Web2 marketing methods are ineffective, their most commonly used approach is actually to have a group of well-known influencers flood social media with the same keywords.

In comparison, top Twitch and YouTube creators in the Korean market earned about $30,000 per live stream and video upload in 2021. With their influence and costs increasing, top creators now may charge close to $40,000 to $50,000. The mentioned top creators have between 1 million to 2 million subscribers, and global creators' fees can be even higher.

While OTG is currently the only Web3 game that can be called AAA in scale (not to mention Star Atlas), its production budget is actually relatively low compared to typical AAA games. According to Delphi's research, the development cost of OTG is only about one-twentieth of games like GTA 6. Even so, their efficient operation of the marketing budget has been recognized, and their performance has increased the value of the AVAX Token by over 10%. Given AVAX's high fully diluted valuation and market cap, it is not surprising that AVAX has invested heavily in marketing support.

(For the chart, please refer)

What many people may not realize is that the peak user base of a game usually occurs at launch, and few game projects can reach that peak again. Ironically, many Web3 games fail to effectively boost their tokens and player base at launch, and prolonged initial promotional activities often lead to resource waste. In the future, we may see more secret projects that pour all their resources at launch.

3. The Rise of Streaming and Influencers

(Image source)

Do you remember when OTG first released its teaser trailer? Despite the anticipation in the Web3 space, the response from the YouTube community was lukewarm. People were skeptical about the battle royale game genre (as looter shooters were popular at the time), criticized the low frame rate of the trailer, and grew tired of repeatedly sharing Dr Disrespect's gameplay demonstration.

So, what was the result of the large-scale marketing push? Millions of players tried the game, over 2 million created accounts and wallets, and more than 3 million transactions were made. Besides the high quality of the game itself, this moment proved the immense influence of celebrity streamers in terms of credibility and mobilization. Mainstream players care more about trust in the messenger than trust in the blockchain or the game itself.

When some YouTubers showcased the game trailer and said, “This game looks fun!” it garnered some attention. But when top influencers live-streamed playing the game and interacted with the audience, the impact was much greater. Due to the high system requirements of the game and the need for organized promotion, many Web3 on-chain players found it difficult to access this game.

The long-term sustainability of OTG depends on whether the streamers promoting it can become spontaneous players. Additionally, considering the widespread cheating issues in shooting games, the view that AAA-level play-to-earn games are difficult to sustain cannot be ignored. The road ahead may be tough, but I sincerely hope OTG succeeds, as it would benefit the entire industry. It is not market rumors that change the gaming ecosystem, but unique successes.

While it is still too early to judge whether Off the Grid is successful, it has indeed injected new vitality into the market.

• Effectiveness of Traditional Marketing: OTG proves that traditional game marketing can also work in the Web3 space.

• Playing for Fun, Not Profit: The motivation for players to play OTG is not to make money, and this shift could have a significant impact on the market.

While OTG cannot yet be considered a successful game, its marketing strategy has already achieved success. Notably, the game's strategy perfectly aligns with the current focus of the gaming market. By shifting the motivation for gaming from profit to entertainment—even if it means downplaying Web3 elements—it addresses the skepticism arising from the weaknesses of Web3 game tokens.

Not every game can or should follow OTG's model. There will still be airdrop events, promotions for free minting NFT whitelists, and a demand for social interaction. The focus on token games will also continue. However, there is no doubt that OTG's performance has sown the seeds of confidence for those game projects currently in secret development.

I remember DigiDaigaku flashing a brief QR code during the Super Bowl, which resulted in a lot of laughter. I am still not sure if that counts as a successful marketing strategy, but I understand why @gabrielleydon is now actively discussing the impact of OTG.

I am glad to see this field becoming active again and sparking some heated discussions. The conversation between Vador and Sparkc, along with Keplr's insights, combined with the current market narrative, is very interesting.

Will OTG completely change the market? At the very least, many players and developers have already seen a new direction forward.

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