Imran and Qiao discussed the trends in cryptocurrency products at Token2049, including the tokenization of consumer goods, the application of social networks and real-world assets, and the rise of infrastructure projects.
Compiled & Translated by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Guests: Imran Khan, Co-founder of @alliancedao; Wang Qiao, Customer Support at @alliancedao
Podcast Source: Good Game Podcast
Original Title: Token2049 Recap | Crypto Product Trends
Broadcast Date: September 22, 2024
Background Information
In this podcast, Imran and Qiao discussed the trends in cryptocurrency products at Token2049, including the tokenization of consumer goods, the application of social networks and real-world assets, and the rise of infrastructure projects, providing founders with direct and insightful cryptocurrency insights.
Interesting Trends at Token2049
In the podcast, Imran discussed some interesting trends observed at Token2049. He mentioned that they held a founder therapy session, inviting about 30 random founders to discuss their ongoing projects. This exchange gave him a broader understanding of current cryptocurrency trends.
Imran mentioned several major trends, including the tokenization of consumer goods, particularly projects related to prediction markets. He also mentioned applications involving social networks and real-world assets (RWAs), as well as infrastructure projects, such as the emergence of Layer 1 projects aiming to establish super liquidity competitors. Although he didn't see particularly novel ideas, he believed there were still many good creative ideas.
Have We Reached the Peak of Our Creativity?
Imran raised a question about whether the industry has reached a bottleneck in terms of creativity.
Qiao acknowledged that this situation does exist in the entire industry, but both he and Imran still have many creative ideas. He pointed out the lack of enough founders to implement these ideas, although they can find people to participate.
Qiao further stated that "depth" has become an important narrative focus, as when the cryptocurrency industry lacks new ideas, it often chooses a narrative for exploration. He mentioned that Helium is currently the biggest example of this "depth" narrative, especially with successful cases related to mobile network data offloading directly linked to tokens, demonstrating strong application scenarios.
Imran inquired about the product-market fit for Keyname, and Qiao stated that they are gradually achieving product-market fit. He expressed uncertainty about the backend capabilities of the entire network they are building, especially in terms of data offloading and bandwidth processing.
PayFi - Huma Project
Qiao mentioned a new narrative called PayFi.
Imran explained that this is a financing model for short-term loans, mainly targeting short-term borrowing between businesses.
Qiao further pointed out that many startups need this type of short-term loan, especially in the process of fund inflow and outflow.
Qiao stated that he met with the founder of PayFi last night and plans to learn more about the details of the project they are building. He believed that the core idea of PayFi is to shorten settlement times using cryptographic technology to improve capital efficiency and achieve instant settlement. This not only improves the efficiency of borrowing between businesses but also brings them closer to profitability, indicating that they have real users and are solving real problems.
Additionally, Qiao mentioned some interesting projects, one of which is building an alternative messaging app to Signal. Qiao believed that this app provides stronger privacy protection, using onion routing technology to hide users' IP addresses, thereby enhancing communication security. He mentioned that Signal currently has some privacy risks, such as storing encrypted phone number mappings, which could be a vulnerability.
Qiao also mentioned that Signal has recently experienced some security incidents, raising questions about its transparency.
Session - Focusing on Message Delivery, Not Metadata
Imran and Qiao mentioned the Session app.
Qiao mentioned that most of the users of Session are not natives of the cryptocurrency field but ordinary people who need privacy protection.
Qiao also mentioned that the Swiss government has expressed appreciation for Session, as Switzerland places great emphasis on privacy protection.
Imran shared his experience of creating a Session account, stating that the onboarding process is very fast and does not require providing personal information.
Qiao explained the working principle of onion routing, emphasizing that this is a core part of the project, and users can choose to run nodes and earn tokens.
Bio.xyz - Molecule Project
Qiao mentioned a new project called Molecule and mentioned that they are developing a project called "The Cooking."
Qiao explained that the core of this project is to tokenize intellectual property (usually related to drug discovery). In this way, they can crowdfund, raise funds, and achieve instant liquidity for this intellectual property.
Imran agreed with this concept and inquired about the operation mechanism of the tokens, such as how the purchase and transaction fees are allocated when conducting DNA research.
Qiao stated that the design space is open, and specific crowdfunding methods and profit distribution are still under discussion.
The two discussed the rebranding of "meme coins," with Imran pointing out that existing names may lead to misunderstandings, suggesting that more descriptive names should be used to reflect the actual use and value of these tokens. Qiao also agreed with this view and proposed using more descriptive names, such as "interceptive token" or tokens involving third-party staking and yield re-staking.
Overall, they expressed optimism about the innovation and potential of the Molecule project, believing that combining cryptocurrency technology with scientific research is a direction worth exploring.
Direct Message Transmission Technology for Bluetooth and WiFi
- Qiao mentioned a new project aimed at establishing a mesh network based on Bluetooth and WiFi Direct. The core idea of this project is to allow users to send messages to each other without the internet, communicating via Bluetooth (up to 30 meters) or WiFi (up to 200 meters) signals.
Imran expressed interest in this and asked if this technology could potentially be widely used in certain regions.
Qiao believes that the application scenarios of this technology are very interesting in countries where the internet is strictly controlled, especially in organizing peaceful protest activities. Historically, many governments have shut down the internet or messaging apps during protests, preventing people from self-organizing.
They mentioned examples from countries like Turkey and Egypt, emphasizing how in these situations, mesh network technology can help people stay connected and organize activities when communication is restricted by the government. The potential of this technology lies in providing users with a new way of self-organization and information transmission, especially in politically unstable areas.
"It seems like we are returning to the original vision"
Imran mentioned that it seems like the current trend is a return to the early vision of cryptocurrency. He recalled that when he first entered the cryptocurrency field, he often saw many innovative ideas and projects. He mentioned some emerging concepts, such as new cipher, expressing nostalgia for these early ideas.
Qiao also agreed with this view, stating that much of the innovation and experimental spirit in the cryptocurrency field is re-emerging. They discussed the positive impact this return could bring and how it could drive further development and application of the technology. Both of them are optimistic about the possibilities for the future and look forward to seeing more new projects and ideas based on the early vision.
"The cryptocurrency space may have attracted some unsuitable people"
Qiao believes that the cryptocurrency space has attracted some unsuitable people. He mentioned that projects like messaging and mesh networks do not make people rich quickly but require long-term investment and development. For example, a session app has been in development for six years. He emphasized that these products are not tools for quick wealth.
Imran agreed with this point, pointing out that these projects are usually open-source and require founders to invest a lot of time and effort. Founders are not in it for quick wealth but out of belief in the idea.
Qiao further pointed out that these technologies are inherently anti-government and anti-authoritarian, which makes many founders reluctant to enter such opportunities. He mentioned that centralized exchanges are usually unwilling to confront the government, so they do not list tokens with potential risks, making it difficult to get rich quickly.
Imran expressed interest in more censorship-resistant products, such as messaging, internet access, and domain names. They discussed the potential need for developing more censorship-resistant solutions in the entire technology stack, emphasizing the importance of this.
Anyone.io - Decentralized TOR Network
Qiao mentioned a project he is going to meet, called Anyone.io, which is a decentralized TOR network. He stated that the project's goal is to "make TOR great again."
He pointed out a significant issue with the TOR network, where many TOR nodes are actually controlled by the CIA and NSA, leading to users not having real privacy when using TOR to browse the internet. Therefore, Anyone.io hopes to create a new version of TOR, fix some technical issues, and do so in an open-source manner.
More interestingly, Anyone.io plans to use token incentives to launch more nodes, making the network less susceptible to control by centralized entities. Qiao believes that this design can increase the decentralization of the network.
Imran expressed concern about whether all messages can be routed. Qiao mentioned that the specific details are not clear yet, and he will learn more in face-to-face discussions with the project team. They discussed decentralized TOR, VPN, mesh networks, and offline messaging, finding these privacy and decentralization technologies very interesting and with significant potential.
Decentralized VPN Technology
Imran mentioned that there are already many decentralized VPNs on the market, but Qiao believes that this field is highly competitive. Imran stated that there are no real winners yet because for ordinary users, they do not perceive a significant difference between decentralized VPNs and traditional VPNs.
Qiao shared some major VPNs he uses, such as Proton and Nord VPN, believing that these brands have fairly good product quality. They discussed the reliability of Nord VPN, noting that despite a downtime incident, its overall uptime is still high.
Imran mentioned that while uptime is a concern, the bigger issue is whether these centralized VPNs store user information and whether there is a risk of being compromised. He admitted that he believes all VPNs could be compromised, implying the possibility of backdoors.
Qiao also added an interesting point, mentioning that each country has its own GPS system to prevent external forces from obtaining the exact location of their leaders, avoiding potential drone attacks. They discussed the balance between privacy and security and how modern technology is changing power structures.
Imran also mentioned an interview about the old mafia, emphasizing how modern technology has made it more difficult to hide evidence, resulting in the mafia's diminished power. This led to their discussion of the future development of decentralized and centralized networks, believing that decentralized solutions may provide higher security and privacy to some extent.
The United States Still Has the Most Developers
Qiao mentioned a quick exchange he had with Kartik, the organizer and planner of global events. He told Qiao that the United States still has the most developers, and in the past few years, the number of developers in the United States has actually increased.
Qiao explained that this is contrary to what they have observed. The trend they see is that many developers are seen as hackers, often working full-time elsewhere, and many are not in the cryptocurrency industry. They participate in hackathons mainly for weekend projects, free food, and potential prizes. Therefore, despite the extremely strict regulatory environment in the United States, the number of people participating in hackathons has increased in the past few years.
Additionally, Qiao also mentioned that Japan is considered one of the top participating countries in the ETHGlobal, while the situation in India is relatively stable, showing the different performances of various countries in the developer ecosystem.
Imran expressed confusion about the developer ecosystem in Japan, stating that he hasn't seen many Japanese founders. Qiao mentioned that he has seen some, but not many. He mentioned a friend who told him about the situation in the Japanese ecosystem and cited the example of Sony's recent project, Sonia.
Qiao explained that Japan's ecosystem seems to be one technology cycle behind the cutting-edge markets. He pointed out that the technology currently being researched in Japan (such as "cheese") is already outdated in cutting-edge markets. Additionally, he mentioned that Japan's crypto ecosystem is relatively isolated from the international market and discussed the reasons for this phenomenon. He believed that language barrier is a major factor, making it very difficult to communicate with Japanese founders.
Imran also agreed that language barriers are a problem in many regions globally, but Qiao emphasized that the situation in Japan is particularly complex. Despite language barriers in Vietnam as well, Qiao believed that communication with Vietnamese founders is relatively easier.
Qiao further pointed out that although Japan has high participation in ETHGlobal, not all participants are Japanese; many people from other countries also fly to Japan to attend events. This situation leads to sample bias. He added that participants from India are mostly Indians, showing the differences in the participation structure of different countries in hackathons.
ETHGlobal's Largest-Scale Hackathon
Imran mentioned that he attended the largest-scale hackathon organized by ETHGlobal in Bangalore last year, attracting 2500 developers, the vast majority of whom were Indians. He joked that although there were some participants from outside India, their numbers were very few, almost negligible.
He also shared his recent experience in Singapore, where Coin DCX (referred to as India's Coinbase) hosted a consumer-oriented event, and many participants flew in from India. He noticed that there are many Indians in Singapore, but almost all participants in this event were from India.
Qiao also mentioned that he saw many Indians flying in from India during his time in Singapore. Imran expressed optimism about the potential of India, believing that this emerging country will produce some interesting products.
Qiao mentioned his conversation with Ajit, who believes that Bangalore has many founders, but he does not think the best ideas will emerge from there. He hopes that Indian founders can spend three months in New York to get closer to cutting-edge markets. Imran believed that many Indian developers aspire to start a startup but lack real entrepreneurial experience. He thought they are more like hacker-entrepreneurs and not experienced founders. He believed that the key is to gain experience, go through failures, and learn how to build a successful startup, rather than just staying in New York.
Vitalik's Song Performance
Qiao mentioned that Vitalik performed a song at an event, which Imran found difficult to understand. He felt that Vitalik's performance style did not quite match his image as a founder. Qiao also agreed, believing that it did not quite fit the style of a founder.
Imran further emphasized that this performance is neither a founder's mode nor a manager's mode, but a different mode. He speculated that Vitalik might be doing these things to increase exposure.
Qiao also mentioned an interesting tweet, suggesting that since Vitalik got a girlfriend, the price of Ethereum Classic (ETC) has dropped by 24% to 25%. This joke implied a humorous connection between Vitalik's personal life and market performance.
Our View on the Current Market
Qiao and Imran mentioned the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the market. Imran stated that Powell "has everyone under control," while Qiao praised his performance in economic management, although he did not handle the inflation issues well in 2021 and 2022.
Qiao pointed out that Trump should bear some responsibility for the inflation issues because he printed a lot of money during the COVID-19 pandemic, and Biden also increased fiscal spending during the economic recovery. Imran believed that Powell made some decisions under the influence of Trump but successfully achieved a "soft landing" or "no landing" economic situation in the past two years, which confused the market.
Qiao believed that the current market outlook is bullish, especially if the period of lower interest rates begins, the market will be very optimistic. Imran believed that the market needs time to digest these changes and hoped that there would be no recession.
They then discussed Peter Thiel's views at a summit, with Imran mentioning that Thiel believes Trump may be re-elected but not perform as expected. He also mentioned that if Trump and Kamala Harris are evenly matched, Harris may win because she has more financial support behind her.
Finally, Imran and Qiao discussed Thiel's views on artificial intelligence, believing that the current AI boom is similar to the dot-com bubble from 1999 to 2000, with only companies like Nvidia being profitable, while other companies are facing losses. Thiel suggested that entrepreneurs should focus on building competitors to OpenAI or Nvidia, which aligns with their views.
NVidia's Market Competition
Qiao mentioned that NVidia is competing with many startups that have introduced specialized hardware ASICs for AI training and inference, and these startups are well-funded and competitive. He pointed out that while NVidia's GPUs have a significant presence in the market, they are not specifically designed for AI.
Qiao believes that NVidia's strength lies mainly in its CUDA software system, which developers widely use to develop AI software.
Imran further mentioned that NVidia's accumulated brand value (Lindy effect) since its founding in 1993 is also one of its competitive advantages. Additionally, Qiao also mentioned the friendship between NVidia CEO Jensen Huang and TSMC CEO, which allows NVidia to receive more support when facing challenges.
They discussed the difficulties NVidia has experienced in recent years, especially after Ethereum's transition from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, leading to a sharp drop in demand for its GPUs. Imran pointed out that NVidia concealed sales data to cryptocurrency miners in its financial reports, which confused the market.
Qiao emphasized that in addition to competition from startups, NVidia also faces pressure from major customers such as Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, as these companies are developing their own hardware to reduce dependence on NVidia. For example, Google collaborated with Broadcom to develop specialized hardware for AI, known as TPU.
Imran pointed out that as these companies develop their own GPUs, AI hardware may become commoditized, although Qiao believed that the rapid iteration of AI hardware prevents it from becoming a commodity. Imran believed that in the long run, with similar infrastructure, AI hardware will tend to become commoditized.
When discussing personal investments, Qiao stated that he only holds TSMC stocks, believing it to be the best choice currently, as TSMC will receive business regardless. However, he also mentioned that if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait within the next four years, the situation will be very severe. He predicted that this conflict could be more serious than the war between Ukraine and Russia, as it would be a direct conflict between two superpowers, not just a proxy war.
Challenges Facing China Currently
Qiao pointed out that many intelligent people are leaving China, a phenomenon confirmed when interacting with several entrepreneurs, especially those in the cryptocurrency field. He mentioned that the number of companies established in China peaked in 2018 and 2019 but has since declined.
Imran added that many limited partners (LP) of fund managers actually come from China, and many entrepreneurs are in debt, facing situations where their salaries are withheld, and bank accounts are frozen. Multiple factors have contributed to the deterioration of the entrepreneurial environment in China, causing many potential entrepreneurs to choose to leave the market.
The 21st Century is Asia's Century
- Qiao mentioned that in recent days, he independently communicated with three Hong Kong residents, all of whom stated that the economic situation in Hong Kong is the worst in the past 30 to 40 years, even worse than the global financial crisis in 2009. He saw on social media that many people believe the 21st century is Asia's century, but he expressed skepticism about this.
Why Is China Growing Faster Than India?
Qiao pointed out that when China and India started in the 1960s and 1970s, their economic conditions, population, and GDP were similar.
Imran believed that China's rapid growth is related to its political system. He mentioned that this system to some extent makes the country's goals more consistent, thus driving economic development. In contrast, India's diverse religions and dialects make it more difficult for the country to unify its goals, resulting in slower development.
When discussing India's religious composition, Imran estimated that India has a population of about 1.4 billion, with approximately 300 million being Muslims, and the rest primarily Hindus. He pointed out that within Hinduism, there are different castes and groups, which historically made the country more susceptible to conquest by external forces.
Imran also mentioned the serious corruption issues in India, especially at the local government level, which also hinders economic growth. He quoted Charlie Munger, stating that he is more optimistic about China's prospects because India's corruption issues are more dispersed.
Qiao further suggested that despite facing these challenges, as the United States and other countries shift manufacturing to India, the country still has great economic growth potential. Imran also agreed with this view, believing that India is entering a new phase of growth.
The two discussed the economic changes in India and the rise of the middle class in India. Imran shared a successful case of his cousin in India, indicating that the Indian economy is progressing positively. Finally, although Qiao is cautious about India's future, he also acknowledges the possibility of India becoming a more influential global country in the future.
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