Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

In the past week, the on-chain market of the ETH mainnet can no longer be simply described as "lively". A single comment from Lao Bao about interest rate cuts has brought a resurgence to the already active on-chain market: there was a surge in market activity with one "golden dog" appearing every day, and even two or three waves of market activity on the weekend. The mainnet gas also surged to around 70Gwei, making it expensive to even breathe on the chain.

From Conceptual Exploration to Narrative Angle, the "No Interception" Emotion Spreads to MEME

In terms of the recent on-chain market itself, the term "separate battles" is more accurate. While the weekend was fleeting for the working class, it was quite saturated and fulfilling for the on-chain players.

Concepts such as Doge founder's dog, Musk's "Mars City" plan, Trump Silver Coin, and various other concepts with their full range of tokens took turns to appear, as if it would be a waste of the emotional and liquidity wave on the chain without introducing new concepts.

However, the market has evolved to the point where new concepts are clearly not enough to satisfy the enthusiasm for PVP. The meme market has upgraded from "exploring concepts" to "narrative angles": as soon as a new speculative concept appears, various tokens with the same name emerge one after another like mushrooms, and new, old, big, and small angles take turns to appear.

Not to mention, just the concept of Musk's "Mars City" that erupted over the weekend has led to several high market value targets: $TERMINUS (Mars City name 1), $BAR (Mars City name 2), various space shuttles, interstellar hotels, astronaut dogs… not to mention that each coin also has to have a lowercase version.

It is obvious that the phenomenon of "no interception" has been subdivided into the meme market. If you buy uppercase, I will buy lowercase. If you push for a three-point D.O.G.E, I will push for a four-point D.O.G.E. Everyone plays their own game. The behavior of various masters frantically finding angles seems to be vying for the "ultimate interpretation" of this narrative, until more and more people recognize this angle, ultimately winning in the upgraded version of PVP. In order not to give others a chance, everyone is indeed going all out.

The rotation of various narratives brings about one multi-million market value after another, and various stories of sudden wealth also emerge one after another. However, in the on-chain market where there are "sudden wealth" stories, there are naturally also "sudden losses" stories.

Exploiting Human Weakness, Are Conspiracy Groups Also Playing Psychological Warfare?

Fragile "Narratives"

Even after winning in numerous concepts and angles, Dog players still face many "uncontrollable" threats. Just like the $MISHA in the "V God's Dog" concept, which went from 0 to $20 million market value in a day, but was halved in value the next day because of V God's statement "I don't own a dog", causing holders to panic and gas prices to soar during the sell-off, and along with the price, the dreams of sudden wealth of countless people also plummeted.

Yes, some of the so-called "narratives" that arise suddenly often do not hold up, and the fragile popularity that arises from a celebrity's words can also be extinguished by a single sentence.

However, this "fragility of narratives" is also being precisely exploited by conspiracy groups, setting one trap after another for players in this passionate weekend.

Hardcore Narratives?

Compared to centralized exchanges, first-level on-chain transactions are more transparent and diverse in terms of information, and individual operations are almost completely visible to those who are attentive. Therefore, in the on-chain world, the "battle" behavior in trading is more straightforward and direct.

On Saturday, a token called $DOGGO emerged, with a trend that was straightforward and reached nearly $20 million in market value within four hours of its launch. While many were still enjoying their weekend sleep, $DOGGO had already finished its run.

Upon further investigation, it turns out that the $DOGGO concept is based on an OG narrative:

Shibetoshi Nakamoto, the founder of the Dogecoin $Doge, had sold all of his $Doge early on, a fact that old players should be familiar with. And this time, the $DOGGO project also initially gave 6.56% of the $DOGGO tokens to Shibetoshi Nakamoto, and Shibetoshi Nakamoto did indeed sell all of his $DOGGO. This "sell-off" narrative has been played by many projects before, but this time, Shibetoshi Nakamoto not only "sold off", but also interacted crazily on topics related to $DOGGO.

This interactive behavior of Shibetoshi Nakamoto is no different from an ambiguous "endorsement" in the eyes of those who are attentive, and the simple and straightforward OG narrative of $DOGGO adds a touch of conspiracy group color. Those tired of fragile narratives and PVP are not fooled by this, and smart wallets are buying in. So, even as many people realized what was happening, the price of $DOGGO continued to rise.

Some are standing by, some are buying, and as the price rises and the market value soars, it seems that $DOGGO's ultimate goal of "going public" is not far off. However, the subsequent plot of $DOGGO once again made people realize that the on-chain world is not a gentle fantasy land, but has always been a bloody dark forest.

From Market Maker Control to Community Takeover, Behind the Rebirth Lies the Design Battle of Conspiracy Groups?

Reversal and Counter-Reversal

Not even a day after $DOGGO became popular, the founder of Dogecoin, Shibetoshi Nakamoto, explicitly stated that he was not responsible for any meme coins, thus denying his previous endorsement of $DOGGO.

With this statement, players who had just learned a lesson from the fragile narrative of $MISHA a few days ago might immediately become alert and wonder what to do next. Run away! In addition, the continuous FUD discourse within the community, along with large wallet sell-offs, turned $DOGGO's trend from a rebound to a sell-off.

However, this time $DOGGO did not continue to plummet after the initial drop, but immediately rebounded after many people panicked and sold off, directly returning to the price before the drop, and even announced the next day that it had already undergone a CTO (community takeover), as if the rapid FUD sell-off during the night had never happened. Even after the announcement of the CTO, $DOGGO's price still experienced a second drop, as if this CTO was also a lie designed by the conspiracy group to trap people, causing panic among retail investors once again, and $DOGGO's market value dropped to around $6 million, similar to the night's crash.

However, just when many people thought that $DOGGO was really finished this time, yes, the price of $DOGGO once again reversed, and this time the market value surged from $6 million all the way to a new high in the range of $20-30 million.

It seems that $DOGGO experienced one reversal after another within two days, from the "rebirth" of the conspiracy group to the community takeover, and the current continuous price increase is also the result of the "community power" as community trust is gradually established.

But is it really that simple?

Not a Rebirth, More Like a Washout?

After the $DOGGO incident, some pointed out that this event is not as simple as it seems on the surface. The so-called "rebirth" of $DOGGO seems more like a series of multiple reversals, and the community takeover is just an excuse for the deep washout by the conspiracy group.

On-chain player @Mirro7777 stated that he was one of the targets of the $DOGGO washout this time, and during the late-night sell-off coordinated with negative news, he sold about 1% of the total $DOGGO chips, turning his profits into losses.

At the same time, user @CryptoRugMunch, who has a deep understanding of conspiracy groups, also stated that the fancy operation of $DOGGO is a textbook case of the conspiracy group playing psychological warfare:

First, sell-off + FUD to make retail investors panic and sell off → Announce CTO to temporarily repair the price → Then another deep drop to completely destroy the confidence of retail investors → Retail investors sell off and leave, then the price surges past the previous high

@CryptoRugMunch also mentioned that the conspiracy group behind $DOGGO has never left, and each time they act is to make retail investors surrender. Unless you enjoy being a victim of psychological warfare, there are better projects in the market for you to choose.

Conclusion

The division of concepts and the search for angles due to issues of interest distribution or different consensus is not a new phenomenon. The hard forks of BTC and ETH also have similarities in essence. However, unlike hard forks, which generally have a "dignified" reason, the reasons for the "division" of Memecoins are more direct: purely for profit. When speculating on a concept, why should I take over for you?

In the collision of consensus, different opportunities arise, and the confrontation between conspiracy groups and community takeover is clearly the more recognized mode of confrontation in the current Meme market.

The confrontation between uppercase and lowercase Neiro proves that the community power also has the potential for sudden wealth, igniting a wave of enthusiasm for the narrative of community takeover in the market.

It's just that there is no fear of a big sell-off, but fear that the big sell-off is more diligent than you. From the story of $DOGGO, it can be seen that the conspiracy groups now know how to wear the skin of a CTO.

As on-chain liquidity gradually becomes abundant, there is still a possibility of being targeted for experienced Degens, not to mention the majority of on-chain players who are "inexperienced". For most people, the crypto world is still a dark forest, and at the moment when you FOMO, there are countless addresses ready to target you.

The market environment is always changing, but the fact that the market is a zero-sum game is always the same. Adapt to the situation flexibly, don't be blinded by the survivorship bias, and don't blindly go all-in. Always remember that the majority of people lose money. I wish you well.

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