Hello to all new and old fans, it's been a long time since we last met, and I'm back after a period of silence. Yes, it's because of the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 4 years. It's also because of the upcoming good market, I believe many friends are looking forward to the "Golden September and Silver October" in 2024 and the expectations for the currency circle next year. This time, the master's return has also accumulated many new trading methods and short-term trading ideas. I will gradually reply to messages from old friends.

Master's Hot Topic:

This interest rate cut is actually a supplement to the lack of interest rate cut in July, which does not mean that the U.S. economy has major problems, but rather shows the Fed's confidence in controlling inflation and supporting the economy. They believe the economy can achieve a "soft landing".

This guidance makes the market sentiment more stable, just like the market expectation management in June 2022.

The Fed's early "release" allows the market to fully discuss and digest various bearish news, ensuring a smooth transition when the actual decision is announced.

Powell did not explicitly say in subsequent speeches that the 50 basis point rate cut was due to economic problems, but emphasized the balance between inflation and unemployment.

He believes that the faster-than-expected decline in inflation is the main reason for increasing the intensity of the rate cut.

Although Powell did not explicitly indicate the pace of future rate cuts, from the dot plot, the possibility of 25 basis point rate cuts in November and December is high.

According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November is 62.2%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 37.8%.

Master's Trend Analysis:

Bitcoin's current basic interest rate in the United States is 0.5%, and the market's reaction is relatively positive due to Japan's frozen interest rate.

From a technical analysis perspective, because a "hidden bearish divergence" has already formed on the current chart, in this case, everyone can focus on the area near the previous high point and make short-term adjustments.

Due to the current bullish market sentiment, we can once again view the adjustment period from the perspective of a rebound.

Resistance Level Reference:

First Resistance Level: 64300

Second Resistance Level: 65000

The current first resistance level has not been reached yet. From the perspective of consolidation, the master believes that there is a high potential for an increase to 65K when retesting the resistance.

Because a hidden bearish divergence has already formed, instead of breaking the current resistance, there is a higher probability of a retest of the high point after a significant adjustment.

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 63200

Second Support Level: 62500

If the price falls near the first support level, it can be considered a short-term support.

The current consolidation does not come from a large bearish candle, but it must reach the first support line with several small candlesticks. Currently, the master temporarily considers it a healthy consolidation zone, so we can focus on whether the bottom of the candlestick forms during the day and look for opportunities to enter the short term.

In today's trading, with the market's positive sentiment, the main view can be to maintain the short-term rebound.

Because the bulls are strong, a potential divergence has formed, so we can view it as a short-term adjustment.

Master's Short-term Pending Orders on 9.20:

Long Entry Reference: 62100-62500 range, gradually enter long positions, defend 500 points, target 63200-64300

Short Entry Reference: 64000-64500 range, gradually enter short positions, defend 500 points, target 63200-62500

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you need to learn more about real-time investment strategies, how to get out of trouble, spot contract trading techniques, operational skills, and candlestick knowledge, you can add Master Chen for learning and communication. I hope to help you find what you want in the currency circle. Focusing on BTC, ETH, and altcoin spot contracts for many years, there is no 100% method, only 100% going with the trend; daily updates on macro analysis articles across the web, technical indicator analysis of mainstream coins and altcoins, and spot medium to long-term replay price prediction videos.

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