If we look back at these three recessions, there are several possibilities:

Stock market crash after a bubble

Housing price crash after a bubble

Bankruptcy of banks

Among them, the impact of the stock market bubble is the smallest because of its relatively small scale and limited impact.

A hard landing in the housing market generally affects consumption due to the wealth effect.

Bankruptcy of banks has the greatest impact because it essentially wipes out both debt and assets, violently deleveraging.

Of course, the most serious situation is actually inflation, which occurred in the United States in the 1970s and in China in the 1980s. In severe cases, it usually leads to stagflation.

Looking at the current situation, where do we stand? It seems that historical experience doesn't quite match.

In fact, many people have forgotten that there was a technical recession in 2022, but it did not affect the employment rate, so it wasn't counted.

What will the future be like? Everyone has their own opinions. I believe it will be a soft landing.

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