Trader Chen Shu: Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Strategies on the Evening of September 15th *1, How to Respond to the Strong Price Above 60,000 as the Rate Cut Approaches?
Summary of the article on the evening of September 14th: The range operation strategy given last night is basically applicable. Today, we need to pay attention to whether the evening price continues to stay above $60,000. Next week is a key week for the Fed's rate cut. How to respond and operate before and after the rate cut, please refer to my analysis below. First, let's analyze the current market trend: As for the Bitcoin daily chart, the price has risen to the MA256 moving average line ($60,000). Whether it can stay above this line still needs to be verified by next week's market. If it stabilizes, under the stimulus of the rate cut, it will continue to rise to the MA60/120 moving average line, around $6,080/$6,280. Currently, the probability of rebound testing this line is high, and it may even rise to the MA30 moving average line near $6,360 on the weekly chart. Therefore, in the first two trading days of next week, we will temporarily take a bullish stance. However, by Wednesday and early Thursday, we need to be cautious about going long and start laying out our medium-term short positions as we mentioned last week.
Regarding the "U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Upper Limit) until September 18th," if it is consistent with market expectations and the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, the stimulus for the price of Bitcoin to rise is limited. It is expected that the upward trend will not last long, and a downturn may begin on the second trading day because the positive impact of the rate cut has already been digested in advance. The typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" in the financial market will be witnessed again. Therefore, I do not expect a 25 basis point rate cut to bring significant positive effects, but rather it may stimulate another significant pullback in Bitcoin.
As for the black swan, which is a low-probability event: if the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, or if there is no rate cut or even a rate hike, these are low-probability events. If they do occur, we should trade in line with the trend of the news.
Looking at the technical aspect, why am I bearish on Bitcoin before the rate cut? First, from the monthly chart, the low price of Bitcoin is continuously moving downward. Although there was a large bullish candlestick on the weekly chart this week, if the MA30 moving average line ($6,360) above cannot be broken and stabilized, it will still be a retracement trend and has not truly turned into a bullish trend, at least not at the moment. Therefore, if the rate cut is expected to be 25 basis points, the drama of false breakthrough and true retreat may be staged again.
In summary, currently, above $60,000, we are taking a bullish stance. In the first trading days of next week, we will also take a bullish approach. At the technical level, we need to focus on whether $60,000 can be stabilized, and whether the resistance levels of $6,280/$6,360 can be broken and stabilized. We also need to be prepared for medium-term short positions at all times. If there is no black swan event, we can consider gradually taking medium-term short positions at the above-mentioned resistance levels. I will provide additional articles if there are opportunities.
Evening Operation Strategy Reference - BTC: Light long at 5,960, add long at 5,880 on pullback, target 6,080, reduce holdings if broken, hold for 6,280; short positions will be arranged in a later article next week; ETH: Light long at 2,380, add long at 2,360 on pullback, target 2,420, reduce holdings if broken, hold for 2,500.
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