- The Fed's interest rate cut is scheduled for 2:00 on September 19th. Currently, the Fed's observation instrument shows that the probability of a 25 and 50 basis point rate cut is both 50%. The rate cut is basically set, it just depends on how much it will be cut.
(I) The U.S. bond yield curve has been inverted since July 2022, maintaining a record for over 2 years. This week, the yield curve has finally been officially lifted. Since the 1980s, the U.S. has experienced five economic recessions, all of which were preceded by an inverted yield curve.
(II) The U.S. triggered the Sam rule in July, which is a highly accurate indicator that officially signals the U.S. economy entering a recession. The originator of the "Sam rule" stated that the U.S. economy is "close" to but has not yet entered a recession.
(III) The global environment is turbulent, with the pandemic ongoing for three years, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and ongoing unrest in 10 countries. Recently, tensions between China and the U.S. have escalated, with four out of the five major powers experiencing setbacks. It is likely that even the "beautiful country" wants to avoid a similar fate.
(IV) Warren Buffett has significantly reduced his top holding, Apple, from 790 million shares to 400 million shares, a reduction of approximately 49%. In less than two months, he sold $6.2 billion worth of Bank of America stocks, increasing his cash reserves to a record high of $276.9 billion. According to Buffett's remarks at the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, the federal government may raise taxes, which are currently at 21%, historically reaching as high as 52%. Looking back over the years, Buffett has repeatedly stated in shareholder letters or public appearances that stocks were "too expensive," allowing him to avoid multiple financial crises and buy at the bottom.
(V) U.S. national debt has surged from $5 trillion in 2000 to $35 trillion. The daily interest payments on the national debt exceed $20 billion. Trump mentioned the U.S. government's debt problem, suggesting using Bitcoin for repayment. A Nobel laureate in economics joked about using a cat's NFT to repay the debt. Although it may seem bullish for Bitcoin, it is actually a desperate move as there is currently no better solution, highlighting the growing national debt problem.
(VI) Looking at the domestic real estate market, defaults have surged, physical stores are closing down, prices are rising, inflation is increasing, and the unemployment rate continues to rise. The recent hot search on Douyin "Goodbye Guangdong" indicates an early return of migrants to their hometowns. 800 million people are in debt, with 400 million people in arrears. China International Capital Corporation has conducted a survey on income groups, revealing that 1.328 billion people, accounting for 94.87% of the total population, have an average salary of less than 5,000 yuan. (There are also investigations into officials, state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, and executives of listed companies over the past 30 years, but details will not be discussed here.) Although the current outlook for the U.S. economy shows resilience, with steady consumer spending, slowing job growth, and inflation rates stable at 2.5%, people are generally worried about an economic recession.
In summary, 2024 will be difficult, and 2025 will be even more challenging. Economic recession is unavoidable, and the Kondratieff cycle also requires time to move from depression to recovery and prosperity. Therefore, any investment needs to be more cautious.
- Returning to the market, it has been oscillating at high levels for half a year.
After the halving of BTC mining output in 2016, 163 days later, long-term holders on the chain initiated a bull market outbreak. After the halving of BTC mining output in 2020, 163 days later, long-term holders on the chain initiated a bull market outbreak. It has been 147 days since the halving of BTC mining output in 2024. Will it be able to start in about half a month?
The weekly chart is about to close with a bullish engulfing pattern, rebounding by over 8,000 points. We have believed that the cup and handle pattern will be completed since March 15th, followed by a substantial increase. The 3-day chart MACD shows a clear bullish divergence, and it has rebounded twice at the MA120 support. If there is still a subsequent pullback without breaking below this moving average, it is not ruled out that it will oscillate upwards, with support at 53,500-55,555 for phased deployment. As for whether it will go lower, first look at the support near 49,000-52,000. If it breaks through, there will be phased entry opportunities at 50,000-46,000-42,000, and being able to obtain lower chips will provide a greater opportunity in the bull market.
The daily chart maintains an ascending flag pattern, and from the closing price line, it is relatively standard, basically falling to the lower edge and rebounding, then starting to decline at the upper or middle position.
The daily chart is currently in a large triangle pattern, with the price line at the upper edge under pressure. Pay attention to the breakout of the triangle, and the 4-hour downtrend line has been broken with a reminder, followed by a retest at 55,555 and a rebound.
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The article is time-sensitive and is for reference only, with real-time updates.
Focusing on candlestick technical research, win-win global investment opportunities. WeChat public account: Trading Master Fusu
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