Author: Digital Asset Research

Translation: Peisen, BlockBeats

Editor's note: Digital Asset Research presents a detailed analysis of the high probability of significant events or news occurring in the cryptocurrency market from August 6th to 12th, based on various data such as detailed time range, price range, and time perspective. The article also compares the current market cycle with previous cycles, pointing out the time patterns of market trend changes and providing ample evidence through monthly and weekly chart analysis.

This is something I have been discussing publicly for some time, but today I want to reiterate that evidence shows that there may be significant trend and sentiment changes in the BTC and broader cryptocurrency market from August 6th to 12th.

A few months ago, I first mentioned this time period in a video outlook, which you can find here.

Today, I will present all the evidence gradually built based on time range, price range, and time perspective. I believe you will see a high probability of significant events or news occurring within this time window.

We will start with the monthly chart and move on to the daily chart to demonstrate the convergence of multiple factors we have observed.

The monthly chart was the focus of our attention last week, but to further demonstrate that we are in the same cycle, we have also included the months of the previous two tops. As you can see, the previous two cycles are almost identical to the current cycle. Both the 33 months from the major high and the 20 months from the major low place us in the time period from July to September, which is the final low before a significant rise.

Now that we know time is on our side, many people believe this cycle is different because the price quickly reached a historic high. However, let's compare the current cycle with previous cycles on the monthly chart.

The evidence is quite shocking. As you can see, except for 2012, the price in the previous two cycles rose just over 200% from the bear market low at exactly the time period we are in now. You can see that this time is no different. In fact, time and price are in their expected positions, neither overly extended as some commentators have said, nor beyond expectations.

Next, let's look at the weekly chart, where there is more to discuss. First, we found that there is a major trend change every 30 weeks in this cycle. Interestingly, this 30-week cycle falls exactly between a major low and a major high, occurring simultaneously. I will explain the reasons in the next few charts, but for now, the next 30-week cycle falls exactly in the week of August 12th. The sum of these three 30-week cycles totals 90 weeks from the bear market low.

Furthermore, let's zoom in on the weekly chart. I noticed that the period from the high point in 2017 to the first significant high point in 2021 was 174 weeks. August 12th will mark 174 weeks from the significant high point in April 2021, undoubtedly an important high point. Therefore, we are approaching the same time period between two important turning points, namely the high point in 2017 and the high point in April 2021.

Based on our evidence, the market is in a different stage, and in my opinion, the turning point is more likely to occur in the form of a major low rather than a major high. But as I have always said, in these cycles, we often see a major high and low occurring simultaneously within this time window.

The following chart shows this specific period in each cycle, as well as the situation at this time last year in this cycle. As you can see, there is almost always a sharp rise in August, followed by a rapid decline, with a drop of 20-50%. Unlike the other three charts from last year, this one is only in the second year of the cycle, but it shows the seasonal nature of this type of trend occurring in August.

It also shows that in this cycle, significant high and low points occur near the 30-week turning point, making the time window relatively tight.

Now let's look at it from a time perspective. Simply put, time perspective refers to calculating 30 calendar days from a significant high or low point and looking for trend changes. You just need to start with 30 and then add 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, and so on, and look for trend changes at these time points. The more concentrated the time points, the higher the importance of that day or week.

As shown in the chart below, all these time measurements fall within a time perspective window. In this cycle, we have several major high and low points pointing to the second week of August as a major convergence period.

Finally, from the perspective of time range, the market has been following a 150-day cycle pattern in this cycle: 155 days of rise and 150 days of consolidation. It is worth noting that the balance of market time should not be imbalanced. In other words, the number of days the market falls should not exceed the number of days it rises. In a bull market, the time the market rises is usually longer than the time it falls, as shown in the chart below. If the market falls for more than the previous 150 days and a new low point occurs, this is not a good sign.

Finally, considering price range, time range, time perspective, and seasonal factors, we are approaching a mid-August window that is likely to become a trigger point for BTC. If this evidence is not sufficient, please note that the start date of the BTC chart is August 19th. I won't discuss this issue too much, but the start date is important, and August is usually the month when major bull markets begin.

This is why I remain cautious here and wait to take more proactive action after this window ends. Will we see the eventual trading of an ETH ETF, followed by a rapid decline similar to the BTC ETF? Or will we see more political headlines causing election uncertainty? I'm not entirely sure what it will be, but it is definitely a period worth paying attention to and being patient with.

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