Bitcoin may face a short-term pullback, key indicators analysis

CN
11 months ago

Earlier this week, after the price of Bitcoin surged from below $66,000 to nearly $72,000, specific features in the chart indicate that a consolidation pullback may be imminent.

The "double-bar reversal" pattern was observed on the Bollinger Bands.

This pattern typically indicates a potential reversal in price direction, occurring when the price of Bitcoin first exceeds the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, but subsequently closes at the upper limit in the next session. This trend may suggest that the upward momentum may be weakening.

The Bollinger Bands expand and contract based on price fluctuations, with the upper and lower bands set at two standard deviations from the middle band. On Tuesday, the price of Bitcoin peaked at around $71,977, temporarily breaking above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, and then closed at the upper band, forming the well-known reversal pattern.

Further analysis shows that the 20-day moving average, i.e. the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, is currently around $64,564 and may serve as potential support in case of price decline. Historical data on the chart indicates that the key resistance level is near the recent high of $71,500, while the support level may be around $64,500 near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and around $58,300 near the overlapping lower band of the Bollinger Bands.

The expansion of the Bollinger Bands indicates an increase in market volatility, especially when the price tests the resistance level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently only at 63, not yet in the overbought zone.

Although strictly speaking, it is not absolutely bearish, the observed technical patterns warrant caution for short-term traders.

It is advisable to pay attention to a period of stable consolidation or a pullback from the recent high. I don't like to see two reversals at the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, as I have witnessed too many pullbacks under this pattern. It is suggested to expect consolidation or a pullback. This is not an absolute bearish view, just short-term concerns.

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With years of experience in cryptocurrency, I welcome discussions on price levels, directions, position distribution, and selected potential coins.

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