Original Author: Mary Liu, BitpushNews

On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market was in a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin continuing to hold above $63,000, while most altcoins experienced slight declines.

Data from Bitpush showed that the trading range for Bitcoin on Tuesday was between $62,815 and $64,445, with a balanced power between bulls and bears. At the time of writing, the BTC trading price was $63,010, a 0.5% decrease over 24 hours.

Among altcoins, most tokens in the top 200 by market capitalization showed a downward trend. AIOZ Network (AIOZ) and Jito (JTO) led the gains, rising by 13.9% and 12.9% respectively, while Ethena (ENA) rose by 7.2%. Helium experienced the largest decline, dropping by 5.6%, followed by Book of Meme (BOME) and Celestia (TIA) which both fell by 5.6% and 5.5% respectively.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.33 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance rate at 53.4%.

The Inflow of BTC into Exchanges Hits Near 10-Year Low

Another set of data that investors are paying attention to is the inflow of Bitcoin into cryptocurrency exchanges, which recently hit a near 10-year low. With Bitcoin investment entering a new era of institutional participation, a significant shift in holder sentiment this year may indicate an imminent bullish recovery.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the number of investors wanting to sell BTC has been decreasing since February 2018. The 365-day moving average of exchange inflow decreased from 90,000 to 36,000, and the current inflow of BTC into exchanges is 20,000, the lowest since 2015 (when the Bitcoin trading price was below $1,000 per coin).

At the same time, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that long-term holders (LTH) have also stopped selling tokens and started accumulating again, which has historically been a bullish sign.

Expected Volatility

An analyst from Secure Digital Markets pointed out, "Since Saturday, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $62,700 and $64,700. The continuous decline of the US dollar index and the 10-year Treasury yield has supported the valuation of risk assets. Breaking through the $65,000 mark undoubtedly indicates a bullish trend."

Despite Bitcoin currently being in a consolidation phase, analysts have noted that the recent rebound "has sparked enthusiasm among cryptocurrency options traders: the trading volume of call options significantly exceeds that of put options, indicating a bullish market sentiment."

Data shows an increased demand for out-of-the-money call options with strike prices between $70,000 and $100,000. According to Deribit's data, traders have acquired over $688 million worth of call options with a strike price of $100,000 across various expiration dates, marking the highest nominal open interest on the platform.

Market analyst Bloodgood stated, "Buyers have heavily entered below $60,000 in the spot market, liquidating later short positions, currently maintaining the weekly support level at $58,000 to $59,000, but the bullish momentum needs to continue, otherwise it will eventually fall back to this level."

Bloodgood added, "The daily level we are interested in now is slightly below $65,000, which will tell us whether this rebound will continue to rise or fall below $60,000. On the daily chart, we can see a clear continuing downtrend, with new lows breaking below $57,000."

From a technical indicator perspective, bulls hope to see higher highs, which means Bitcoin needs to rise above $67,000, while bears hope to see this daily resistance level hold and bring Bitcoin back below $60,000. Both bulls and bears will continue to compete within this range this week.

Regarding broader market forces and the forces affecting asset prices, Bloodgood stated, "Macro factors have been swinging between hopes for a soft landing and dovish Fed policies and concerns about a resurgence of inflation."

The driving force that bulls need is the non-farm payroll report (NFP) released on Friday. The NFP revealed that the US economy added 175,000 jobs in April 2024, a slowdown from the upwardly revised 315,000 jobs in March, far below the market's expected growth of 243,000 jobs.

Bloodgood concluded, "In general, a weak job market is not good news as most people think, but in this case, it is good for stocks and cryptocurrencies because it prompts the Fed to take a more dovish stance."

Data provided by Alternative shows that the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is still in the "greed" territory. Some analysts have stated that this indicates a need for further softening to ensure the removal of excess froth from the market.

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