Trading philosophy: Look at the trend in the long term, and find entry points in the short term.
Market news: The Federal Reserve will announce a new round of interest rate decisions at 2 am tomorrow, with an expected target of 5.5%, the same as the previous value. If the announced value is higher than the expected 5.5%, it will be bearish, indicating a rate hike. If it is lower than expected, it will be bullish, indicating a rate cut. Based on the previous announcements, this time is likely to meet expectations. Therefore, do not expect a rate cut too much. As for Powell's speech, it should be viewed rationally. Unless there are clear dovish remarks, it will only cause a temporary trend reversal in the coin price. Under normal circumstances, it will only lead to short-term fluctuations.
Technical analysis: Regarding Bitcoin, the monthly chart shows a large bearish candle, basically retracting all the gains from March. The MACD moving average shows a sign of turning downwards, the bullish volume begins to shrink, and the KDJ line is moving downwards. According to the Fibonacci analysis, the breach of 78.6% (near 61300) means that the market is likely to test the 61.8% level (near 51500). The daily chart has broken through the lower Bollinger Band, and the MACD moving average and KDJ line are both moving downwards, with the bearish volume continuing to increase. As for Ethereum, the monthly chart also shows a large bearish candle, breaking through the gains from March. The breach of the Fibonacci 61.8% level (near 3350) means that it may fall to the 50% Fibonacci level (near 2875). If this level is breached, it may come to the 38.2% level (near 2400). The technical indicators at the daily chart level are basically synchronized with Bitcoin.
In summary, the current market trend basically meets the bearish expectations of the past few days. It was also explicitly mentioned yesterday that the "three tests and four breaches" law was in effect. Bitcoin tested the 60000 level and Ethereum tested the 3000 level three times before, and the fourth test is likely to lead to a breach. Therefore, the successful validation of the short position strategy was achieved, with a profit of nearly 4000 points for Bitcoin and nearly 200 points for Ethereum. Specific details can be found in the previous article. It is expected that the market will rebound to confirm the resistance level, and then continue the bearish trend. It is recommended to wait for a stable rebound and then take a short position near the resistance level, or be more aggressive and take a small long position to see a rebound repair!
Trading recommendations:
Bitcoin: Long at 56700-57200, target 58300-59000! Short at 58800-59300, target 58000-57000!
Ethereum: Long at 2820-2850, target 2920-2950! Short at 2930-2960, target 2850-2800!
The strategy is time-sensitive, and specific guidance should be based on real-time instructions.
Follow WeChat public account "允彦" for more information!
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