Daily Sharing
Bitcoin failed to break through 64370 after rebounding yesterday, instead it fell back to around 62000 and dropped to around 61900 in the afternoon. At present, it seems that Bitcoin has not been able to initiate an upward trend, so in the short term, it may fall back to around 59000 to extend the daily-level retracement from 73777.
Regarding Bitcoin's daily chart, as mentioned before, if the 4-hour rebound of Bitcoin cannot break through 70500, there may be a further 4-hour retracement to the range of 56000 to 59000. As seen in the actual market, not only did it fail to reach 70500, it didn't even touch 68000. However, there is one aspect of the structure that we have been unable to accurately judge, which is that Bitcoin has not been able to form the up-down-up three-wave 1-hour structure, making it difficult for us to accurately determine whether the 4-hour rebound has been completed.
Bitcoin has reached around 62000 in the short term today and dropped to around 61900. If it falls below 62000 again tonight or tomorrow and fails to quickly recover, Bitcoin will undoubtedly fall below 59600 again, possibly reaching around 59000 or even the range of 56000 to 59000.
If it does not fall below 62000 tonight or tomorrow, the 4-hour rebound may not have ended yet. Patience is advised.
Due to the slow decline in the short term, Bitcoin is in a state of slow oscillation, occasionally rebounding and then falling, coupled with the fact that the 4-hour structure has formed many waves, so personally, I believe it is unlikely for Bitcoin to fall below 55000. The current oscillation and retracement of Bitcoin is somewhat similar to the retracement from April 14 to June 14 last year, which looked scary but did not actually fall by much. Therefore, it is important to remain cautiously optimistic in the darkness before dawn, as there is no need to be pessimistic in a bull market.
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market in the short term, the article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use the information as a reference only.
1H:
In previous articles, we mentioned that if Bitcoin can stay above 62000, there is hope for a further rebound towards around 67000 or higher to observe the extension of the 4-hour rebound. If it falls below 62000, it may further retest around 59000. Bitcoin has now fallen below 62000, and this fall can be considered a probe. We can observe if subsequent solid candlesticks fall below, which would likely lead to further decline. Pay attention to the support around 59000 or the range of 59000 to 56000 below.
From the current market situation, it seems that 62000 may not hold, so be prepared for a retest around 59000.
15M:
On the 15-minute chart, it is likely running the fifth 15-minute downtrend, with support around 60500 below.
ETH
Ethereum's rebound last night was not strong enough and failed to accelerate, so it is very likely that Ethereum will undergo a new 4-hour downtrend. If a 4-hour downtrend occurs, it is expected to retest the range of 2800 to 2850. Currently, it is the first 1-hour downtrend, which has not ended yet. Pay attention to the support around 3030 below.
According to our expectations, Ethereum retraced to around 3270 last night and then initiated the third 15-minute rebound. However, the strength of the third rebound did not meet expectations and failed to accelerate, resulting in a 1-hour downtrend today. The first 15-minute downtrend has already occurred, and it is expected that there will be a second 15-minute rebound and a third 15-minute downtrend. For the short term, pay attention to the resistance around 3200 for the rebound and the range of 3050 to 3000 for the third 15-minute downtrend.
Altcoins:
Most altcoins are still in a low-level oscillation. It's not that altcoins are not rising, but the leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet initiated an upward trend. It can be anticipated that if Bitcoin falls back to 59000 again, many altcoins may also retest the low point around April 14 or slightly below. However, the probability of a significant further decline is low.
Trend Direction
Weekly Chart: Upward, currently continuing the weekly rebound from 15476. Pay attention to the subsequent daily chart for when it might end.
Daily Chart: Downward, with a high probability of further short-term decline.
4-hour Chart: Downward, 62000 may not hold, further observation is needed. If it falls below, look for 59000.
1-hour Chart: Downward, the short-term decline has not yet completed, and there may be further decline.
15-minute Chart: Upward, observe the strength of the 15-minute rebound in the short term, with resistance around 63300.
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The article is time-sensitive, so be cautious of risks. The above is for reference only and represents personal opinions.
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