According to the latest data on April 1st, the market generally believes that the Fed's interest rate cut this year will be less than the central bank's forecast. In the past week, there was a consensus between the market and the Fed that monetary policy would be further eased. However, this consensus did not last long. Investors have now changed their stance, predicting that the Fed will cut interest rates by about 65 basis points in 2024, while the median estimate released by the Fed after its meeting on March 19th to 20th was 75 basis points. Given the latest consumer data, Fed Chairman Powell stated that the latest inflation data is basically in line with their expectations and reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to take interest rate cuts. It is worth noting that this forecast is lower compared to the central bank's forecast. Market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut still exist, but are relatively conservative.

Due to the reduced bets on the Fed's easing of monetary policy, the price of Bitcoin fell again today. The significant rise in cryptocurrency prices this year is losing momentum, as persistent U.S. price pressures have led investors to restrain their bets on a Fed interest rate cut, thereby pushing up U.S. bond yields and the dollar.

Affected by this news, global risk asset markets are trembling, with the Nasdaq index, Nikkei 225 index, and other indices all falling. Short-term market heat will cool down, and a mid-term market adjustment may have already begun. In detail, Bitcoin plunged at the opening on the morning of April 2nd, breaking through the previous week's consolidation range, opening up downward space, and rushing towards the previous low point. From a technical perspective, the technical support levels for price action are in the 59,000-61,000 range, where prices may experience a brief rebound adjustment, and the subsequent direction will depend on the tug of war between long and short positions at this level.

The future trend is not difficult to predict, but before the market reacts near the 60,000 price level, all predictions are meaningless. I believe readers have heard about the prediction of a certain semi-god in the currency circle. We cannot know under what circumstances and environment he made such irresponsible predictions, and whether it was his own doing is also unknown. But what I can be sure of is that his past profits must not have been obtained through such predictions. Only we can foot the bill for our account capital, be practical, do what needs to be done, follow the trend, control risks, believe in our own eyes, and not be disturbed in judgment by a single prophecy. Timely adaptation is the key to trading.

In addition, many tokens will be unlocked and released into the market this month. Due to the previous accumulation of too much increase, if these unlocked tokens are sold, it will also be a sword to crush the market.

Short-term market expectations only affect short-term market trends, but will not change the expectation gap for interest rate cuts within the year. Short-term trading players can choose to go short at the right time, but in the medium to long term, it is still to replenish long positions when the price stabilizes at a low level. The long-term price expectation for Bitcoin remains unchanged. It's just that anything can happen in the blockchain market, so try to reduce leverage and set stop-loss orders. Adaptation is important in trading, and predictions are just presenting possibilities. Welcome to join the organization to get the latest information and the most timely adaptive strategies.

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